Data-driven Surface Solar Irradiance Estimation using Neural Operators at Global Scale
This enables more efficient solar energy integration into power grids globally, though it builds incrementally on existing weather modeling approaches.
The paper tackles global surface solar irradiance forecasting by developing a neural operator model that uses numerical weather prediction and AI weather model outputs to provide 6-hourly estimates, with fine-tuning via satellite data improving regional performance while maintaining global accuracy.
Accurate surface solar irradiance (SSI) forecasting is essential for optimizing renewable energy systems, particularly in the context of long-term energy planning on a global scale. This paper presents a pioneering approach to solar radiation forecasting that leverages recent advancements in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and data-driven machine learning weather models. These advances facilitate long, stable rollouts and enable large ensemble forecasts, enhancing the reliability of predictions. Our flexible model utilizes variables forecast by these NWP and AI weather models to estimate 6-hourly SSI at global scale. Developed using NVIDIA Modulus, our model represents the first adaptive global framework capable of providing long-term SSI forecasts. Furthermore, it can be fine-tuned using satellite data, which significantly enhances its performance in the fine-tuned regions, while maintaining accuracy elsewhere. The improved accuracy of these forecasts has substantial implications for the integration of solar energy into power grids, enabling more efficient energy management and contributing to the global transition to renewable energy sources.