Dynamic technology impact analysis: A multi-task learning approach to patent citation prediction
This work provides a method for analyzing technology impact in patent data, offering incremental improvements for researchers and industry professionals in technology forecasting.
The study tackled the problem of predicting technology impact from patent citations by addressing the dynamic nature and interdependencies over time, using a multi-task learning approach that improved prediction accuracy in a case study on battery technologies.
Machine learning (ML) models are valuable tools for analyzing the impact of technology using patent citation information. However, existing ML-based methods often struggle to account for the dynamic nature of the technology impact over time and the interdependencies of these impacts across different periods. This study proposes a multi-task learning (MTL) approach to enhance the prediction of technology impact across various time frames by leveraging knowledge sharing and simultaneously monitoring the evolution of technology impact. First, we quantify the technology impacts and identify patterns through citation analysis over distinct time periods. Next, we develop MTL models to predict citation counts using multiple patent indicators over time. Finally, we examine the changes in key input indicators and their patterns over different periods using the SHapley Additive exPlanation method. We also offer guidelines for validating and interpreting the results by employing statistical methods and natural language processing techniques. A case study on battery technologies demonstrates that our approach not only deepens the understanding of technology impact, but also improves prediction accuracy, yielding valuable insights for both academia and industry.