Indexing Economic Fluctuation Narratives from Keiki Watchers Survey
This work addresses the need for better economic forecasting tools for companies, governments, and investors, but it appears incremental as it builds on a previously proposed framework.
The paper tackled the problem of leveraging economic text data for forecasting by designing indices from economic surveys using a narrative framework, resulting in indices that showed stronger correlation with cumulative lagging diffusion indices compared to other types.
In this paper, we design indices of economic fluctuation narratives derived from economic surveys. Companies, governments, and investors rely on key metrics like GDP and industrial production indices to predict economic trends. However, they have yet to effectively leverage the wealth of information contained in economic text, such as causal relationships, in their economic forecasting. Therefore, we design indices of economic fluctuation from economic surveys by using our previously proposed narrative framework. From the evaluation results, it is observed that the proposed indices had a stronger correlation with cumulative lagging diffusion index than other types of diffusion indices.