How Much Can Time-related Features Enhance Time Series Forecasting?
This work solves the issue of capturing cyclical trends in time series forecasting for domains like energy and traffic, though it is incremental as it builds on existing linear methods.
The paper tackles the problem of long-term time series forecasting by addressing the lack of explicit time-related feature incorporation, resulting in a 23% average MSE reduction on benchmark datasets like Electricity and Traffic.
Recent advancements in long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) have primarily focused on capturing cross-time and cross-variate (channel) dependencies within historical data. However, a critical aspect often overlooked by many existing methods is the explicit incorporation of \textbf{time-related features} (e.g., season, month, day of the week, hour, minute), which are essential components of time series data. The absence of this explicit time-related encoding limits the ability of current models to capture cyclical or seasonal trends and long-term dependencies, especially with limited historical input. To address this gap, we introduce a simple yet highly efficient module designed to encode time-related features, Time Stamp Forecaster (TimeSter), thereby enhancing the backbone's forecasting performance. By integrating TimeSter with a linear backbone, our model, TimeLinear, significantly improves the performance of a single linear projector, reducing MSE by an average of 23\% on benchmark datasets such as Electricity and Traffic. Notably, TimeLinear achieves these gains while maintaining exceptional computational efficiency, delivering results that are on par with or exceed state-of-the-art models, despite using a fraction of the parameters.