Learning General Causal Structures with Hidden Dynamic Process for Climate Analysis
This work addresses the challenge of causal inference in climate analysis, which is crucial for understanding climate dynamics beyond correlations, though it appears incremental by integrating existing causal representation learning and discovery methods.
The paper tackles the problem of uncovering causal structures in climate data by jointly modeling causal relations among observed variables and latent dynamic processes, introducing a framework that achieves competitive forecasting accuracy and recovers interpretable causal graphs aligned with domain expertise.
Understanding climate dynamics requires going beyond correlations in observational data to uncover their underlying causal process. Latent drivers, such as atmospheric processes, play a critical role in temporal dynamics, while direct causal influences also exist among geographically proximate observed variables. Traditional Causal Representation Learning (CRL) typically focuses on latent factors but overlooks such observable-to-observable causal relations, limiting its applicability to climate analysis. In this paper, we introduce a unified framework that jointly uncovers (i) causal relations among observed variables and (ii) latent driving forces together with their interactions. We establish conditions under which both the hidden dynamic processes and the causal structure among observed variables are simultaneously identifiable from time-series data. Remarkably, our guarantees hold even in the nonparametric setting, leveraging contextual information to recover latent variables and causal relations. Building on these insights, we propose CaDRe (Causal Discovery and Representation learning), a time-series generative model with structural constraints that integrates CRL and causal discovery. Experiments on synthetic datasets validate our theoretical results. On real-world climate datasets, CaDRe not only delivers competitive forecasting accuracy but also recovers visualized causal graphs aligned with domain expertise, thereby offering interpretable insights into climate systems.