Exploring the Technology Landscape through Topic Modeling, Expert Involvement, and Reinforcement Learning
This provides organizations with a scalable tool for strategic decision-making in dynamic technological environments, though it appears incremental as it integrates existing techniques.
The study tackled the challenge of detecting technological changes by proposing a method combining topic modeling, expert knowledge, and reinforcement learning to identify and track trends, tested on quantum communication forecasting with results showing effectiveness in aligning with expert input.
In today's rapidly evolving technological landscape, organizations face the challenge of integrating external insights into their decision-making processes to stay competitive. To address this issue, this study proposes a method that combines topic modeling, expert knowledge inputs, and reinforcement learning (RL) to enhance the detection of technological changes. The method has four main steps: (1) Build a relevant topic model, starting with textual data like documents and reports to find key themes. (2) Create aspect-based topic models. Experts use curated keywords to build models that showcase key domain-specific aspects. (3) Iterative analysis and RL driven refinement: We examine metrics such as topic magnitude, similarity, entropy shifts, and how models change over time. We optimize topic selection with RL. Our reward function balances the diversity and similarity of the topics. (4) Synthesis and operational integration: Each iteration provides insights. In the final phase, the experts check these insights and reach new conclusions. These conclusions are designed for use in the firm's operational processes. The application is tested by forecasting trends in quantum communication. Results demonstrate the method's effectiveness in identifying, ranking, and tracking trends that align with expert input, providing a robust tool for exploring evolving technological landscapes. This research offers a scalable and adaptive solution for organizations to make informed strategic decisions in dynamic environments.