The day-ahead scenario generation method for new energy based on an improved conditional generative diffusion model
This addresses the need for interpretable scenario generation in power systems with increasing new energy share, but it is incremental as it builds on existing diffusion models with specific improvements.
The paper tackled the problem of generating day-ahead scenarios for new energy output to improve power system scheduling, by introducing an improved conditional generative diffusion model that uses a cosine noise table, and results showed it effectively generated scenarios with good adaptability on actual wind and solar data.
In the context of the rising share of new energy generation, accurately generating new energy output scenarios is crucial for day-ahead power system scheduling. Deep learning-based scenario generation methods can address this need, but their black-box nature raises concerns about interpretability. To tackle this issue, this paper introduces a method for day-ahead new energy scenario generation based on an improved conditional generative diffusion model. This method is built on the theoretical framework of Markov chains and variational inference. It first transforms historical data into pure noise through a diffusion process, then uses conditional information to guide the denoising process, ultimately generating scenarios that satisfy the conditional distribution. Additionally, the noise table is improved to a cosine form, enhancing the quality of the generated scenarios. When applied to actual wind and solar output data, the results demonstrate that this method effectively generates new energy output scenarios with good adaptability.