Enabling Inclusive Systematic Reviews: Incorporating Preprint Articles with Large Language Model-Driven Evaluations
This work addresses the problem of timely evidence synthesis for researchers in comparative effectiveness research by providing an automated tool to assess preprint quality, though it is incremental in improving existing prediction methods.
The study tackled the challenge of incorporating preprint articles into systematic reviews by developing AutoConfidence, a framework for predicting preprint publication, which achieved AUROC scores up to 0.747 with random forest and 0.731 with survival cure models.
Background. Systematic reviews in comparative effectiveness research require timely evidence synthesis. Preprints accelerate knowledge dissemination but vary in quality, posing challenges for systematic reviews. Methods. We propose AutoConfidence (automated confidence assessment), an advanced framework for predicting preprint publication, which reduces reliance on manual curation and expands the range of predictors, including three key advancements: (1) automated data extraction using natural language processing techniques, (2) semantic embeddings of titles and abstracts, and (3) large language model (LLM)-driven evaluation scores. Additionally, we employed two prediction models: a random forest classifier for binary outcome and a survival cure model that predicts both binary outcome and publication risk over time. Results. The random forest classifier achieved AUROC 0.692 with LLM-driven scores, improving to 0.733 with semantic embeddings and 0.747 with article usage metrics. The survival cure model reached AUROC 0.716 with LLM-driven scores, improving to 0.731 with semantic embeddings. For publication risk prediction, it achieved a concordance index of 0.658, increasing to 0.667 with semantic embeddings. Conclusion. Our study advances the framework for preprint publication prediction through automated data extraction and multiple feature integration. By combining semantic embeddings with LLM-driven evaluations, AutoConfidence enhances predictive performance while reducing manual annotation burden. The framework has the potential to facilitate incorporation of preprint articles during the appraisal phase of systematic reviews, supporting researchers in more effective utilization of preprint resources.