ML-Based Bidding Price Prediction for Pay-As-Bid Ancillary Services Markets: A Use Case in the German Control Reserve Market
This work addresses the challenge for industrial participants in electricity markets to maximize revenues through better bidding strategies, though it is incremental as it applies existing ML models with a novel adjustment to a specific domain.
The paper tackles the problem of suboptimal bidding in pay-as-bid ancillary services markets, such as the German control reserve market, by developing a machine learning-based forecasting methodology with an offset adjustment technique, resulting in revenue improvements of 27.43% to 37.31% compared to baselines and showing that a reduction in forecasting error by 1 EUR/MW can increase yearly revenue by 483 to 3,631 EUR/MW.
The increasing integration of renewable energy sources has led to greater volatility and unpredictability in electricity generation, posing challenges to grid stability. Ancillary service markets, such as the German control reserve market, allow industrial consumers and producers to offer flexibility in their power consumption or generation, contributing to grid stability while earning additional income. However, many participants use simple bidding strategies that may not maximize their revenues. This paper presents a methodology for forecasting bidding prices in pay-as-bid ancillary service markets, focusing on the German control reserve market. We evaluate various machine learning models, including Support Vector Regression, Decision Trees, and k-Nearest Neighbors, and compare their performance against benchmark models. To address the asymmetry in the revenue function of pay-as-bid markets, we introduce an offset adjustment technique that enhances the practical applicability of the forecasting models. Our analysis demonstrates that the proposed approach improves potential revenues by 27.43 % to 37.31 % compared to baseline models. When analyzing the relationship between the model forecasting errors and the revenue, a negative correlation is measured for three markets; according to the results, a reduction of 1 EUR/MW model price forecasting error (MAE) statistically leads to a yearly revenue increase between 483 EUR/MW and 3,631 EUR/MW. The proposed methodology enables industrial participants to optimize their bidding strategies, leading to increased earnings and contributing to the efficiency and stability of the electrical grid.