Language Model Uncertainty Quantification with Attention Chain
This addresses the challenge of judging LLM answer reliability in complex reasoning tasks, though it is incremental as it builds on existing uncertainty quantification methods.
The paper tackles the problem of quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) when they generate answers with intermediate reasoning steps, proposing UQAC to efficiently narrow the reasoning space for marginalization, and demonstrates reliable uncertainty estimates with high computational efficiency on multiple reasoning benchmarks.
Accurately quantifying a large language model's (LLM) predictive uncertainty is crucial for judging the reliability of its answers. While most existing research focuses on short, directly answerable questions with closed-form outputs (e.g., multiple-choice), involving intermediate reasoning steps in LLM responses is increasingly important. This added complexity complicates uncertainty quantification (UQ) because the probabilities assigned to answer tokens are conditioned on a vast space of preceding reasoning tokens. Direct marginalization is infeasible, and the dependency inflates probability estimates, causing overconfidence in UQ. To address this, we propose UQAC, an efficient method that narrows the reasoning space to a tractable size for marginalization. UQAC iteratively constructs an "attention chain" of tokens deemed "semantically crucial" to the final answer via a backtracking procedure. Starting from the answer tokens, it uses attention weights to identify the most influential predecessors, then iterates this process until reaching the input tokens. The resulting chain is further refined with similarity filtering and probability thresholding, which reduce the reasoning space, facilitating the approximation of the marginal answer token probabilities. We validate UQAC on multiple reasoning benchmarks with advanced open-source LLMs, demonstrating that it consistently delivers reliable UQ estimates with high computational efficiency.