DRAN: A Distribution and Relation Adaptive Network for Spatio-temporal Forecasting
This work addresses accurate forecasting for spatio-temporal systems like weather and traffic, which is crucial for management and crisis prevention, representing an incremental improvement over existing methods.
The paper tackles the problem of non-stationarity in spatio-temporal forecasting by proposing DRAN, a network that dynamically adapts to distribution and relation changes, achieving state-of-the-art performance on weather prediction and traffic flow forecasting tasks.
Accurate predictions of spatio-temporal systems are crucial for tasks such as system management, control, and crisis prevention. However, the inherent time variance of many spatio-temporal systems poses challenges to achieving accurate predictions whenever stationarity is not granted. In order to address non-stationarity, we propose a Distribution and Relation Adaptive Network (DRAN) capable of dynamically adapting to relation and distribution changes over time. While temporal normalization and de-normalization are frequently used techniques to adapt to distribution shifts, this operation is not suitable for the spatio-temporal context as temporal normalization scales the time series of nodes and possibly disrupts the spatial relations among nodes. In order to address this problem, a Spatial Factor Learner (SFL) module is developed that enables the normalization and de-normalization process. To adapt to dynamic changes in spatial relationships among sensors, we propose a Dynamic-Static Fusion Learner (DSFL) module that effectively integrates features learned from both dynamic and static relations through an adaptive fusion ratio mechanism. Furthermore, we introduce a Stochastic Learner to capture the noisy components of spatio-temporal representations. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods on weather prediction and traffic flow forecasting tasks.Experimental results show that our SFL efficiently preserves spatial relationships across various temporal normalization operations. Visualizations of the learned dynamic and static relations demonstrate that DSFL can capture both local and distant relationships between nodes.