When is using AI the rational choice? The importance of counterfactuals in AI deployment decisions
This work addresses the challenge for AI developers and deployment decision makers in ensuring beneficial AI usage by highlighting the impact of counterfactuals, though it is incremental in refining existing decision-making frameworks.
The paper tackles the problem of AI deployment decisions by incorporating counterfactual outcomes into expected utility assessments, revealing that AI usage can be beneficial for intended beneficiaries but strongly negative for stakeholders and decision makers in many contexts.
Decisions to deploy AI capabilities are often driven by counterfactuals - a comparison of decisions made using AI to decisions that would have been made if the AI were not used. Counterfactual misses, which are poor decisions that are attributable to using AI, may have disproportionate disutility to AI deployment decision makers. Counterfactual hits, which are good decisions attributable to AI usage, may provide little benefit beyond the benefit of better decisions. This paper explores how to include counterfactual outcomes into usage decision expected utility assessments. Several properties emerge when counterfactuals are explicitly included. First, there are many contexts where the expected utility of AI usage is positive for intended beneficiaries and strongly negative for stakeholders and deployment decision makers. Second, high levels of complementarity, where differing AI and user assessments are merged beneficially, often leads to substantial disutility for stakeholders. Third, apparently small changes in how users interact with an AI capability can substantially impact stakeholder utility. Fourth, cognitive biases such as expert overconfidence and hindsight bias exacerbate the perceived frequency of costly counterfactual misses. The expected utility assessment approach presented here is intended to help AI developers and deployment decision makers to navigate the subtle but substantial impact of counterfactuals so as to better ensure that beneficial AI capabilities are used.