Can Pre-training Indicators Reliably Predict Fine-tuning Outcomes of LLMs?
This addresses the challenge of efficient model selection and development for LLMs, though it is incremental in improving existing methods.
The paper tackled the problem of predicting fine-tuning outcomes of large language models (LLMs) from pre-training indicators, showing that conventional perplexity is misleading and introducing novel proxy metrics that reduce relative performance prediction error by over 50%.
While metrics available during pre-training, such as perplexity, correlate well with model performance at scaling-laws studies, their predictive capacities at a fixed model size remain unclear, hindering effective model selection and development. To address this gap, we formulate the task of selecting pre-training checkpoints to maximize downstream fine-tuning performance as a pairwise classification problem: predicting which of two LLMs, differing in their pre-training, will perform better after supervised fine-tuning (SFT). We construct a dataset using 50 1B parameter LLM variants with systematically varied pre-training configurations, e.g., objectives or data, and evaluate them on diverse downstream tasks after SFT. We first conduct a study and demonstrate that the conventional perplexity is a misleading indicator. As such, we introduce novel unsupervised and supervised proxy metrics derived from pre-training that successfully reduce the relative performance prediction error rate by over 50%. Despite the inherent complexity of this task, we demonstrate the practical utility of our proposed proxies in specific scenarios, paving the way for more efficient design of pre-training schemes optimized for various downstream tasks.