BASIR: Budget-Assisted Sectoral Impact Ranking -- A Dataset for Sector Identification and Performance Prediction Using Language Models
It addresses a critical gap for investors and policymakers by providing data-driven insights into fiscal policy impacts, though it is incremental as it applies existing language models to a new domain-specific dataset.
This study tackled the problem of analyzing the impact of India's Union Budget announcements on sector-specific equity performance by developing BASIR, a dataset and framework for sector identification and performance prediction, achieving a 0.605 F1-score in classification and 0.997 NDCG score in ranking.
Government fiscal policies, particularly annual union budgets, exert significant influence on financial markets. However, real-time analysis of budgetary impacts on sector-specific equity performance remains methodologically challenging and largely unexplored. This study proposes a framework to systematically identify and rank sectors poised to benefit from India's Union Budget announcements. The framework addresses two core tasks: (1) multi-label classification of excerpts from budget transcripts into 81 predefined economic sectors, and (2) performance ranking of these sectors. Leveraging a comprehensive corpus of Indian Union Budget transcripts from 1947 to 2025, we introduce BASIR (Budget-Assisted Sectoral Impact Ranking), an annotated dataset mapping excerpts from budgetary transcripts to sectoral impacts. Our architecture incorporates fine-tuned embeddings for sector identification, coupled with language models that rank sectors based on their predicted performances. Our results demonstrate 0.605 F1-score in sector classification, and 0.997 NDCG score in predicting ranks of sectors based on post-budget performances. The methodology enables investors and policymakers to quantify fiscal policy impacts through structured, data-driven insights, addressing critical gaps in manual analysis. The annotated dataset has been released under CC-BY-NC-SA-4.0 license to advance computational economics research.