Tree Boosting Methods for Balanced andImbalanced Classification and their Robustness Over Time in Risk Assessment
This work addresses risk assessment problems for practitioners using machine learning, but it is incremental as it focuses on empirical evaluation of existing methods.
This paper tackles the challenge of imbalanced datasets in classification by empirically evaluating tree boosting methods like XGBoost and Imbalance-XGBoost on tabular data with varying sizes and class distributions. The results show that the method improves recognition performance with more training data, with F1 scores decreasing as imbalance increases but remaining superior to a baseline, and it demonstrates robustness to data variation over time.
Most real-world classification problems deal with imbalanced datasets, posing a challenge for Artificial Intelligence (AI), i.e., machine learning algorithms, because the minority class, which is of extreme interest, often proves difficult to be detected. This paper empirically evaluates tree boosting methods' performance given different dataset sizes and class distributions, from perfectly balanced to highly imbalanced. For tabular data, tree-based methods such as XGBoost, stand out in several benchmarks due to detection performance and speed. Therefore, XGBoost and Imbalance-XGBoost are evaluated. After introducing the motivation to address risk assessment with machine learning, the paper reviews evaluation metrics for detection systems or binary classifiers. It proposes a method for data preparation followed by tree boosting methods including hyper-parameter optimization. The method is evaluated on private datasets of 1 thousand (K), 10K and 100K samples on distributions with 50, 45, 25, and 5 percent positive samples. As expected, the developed method increases its recognition performance as more data is given for training and the F1 score decreases as the data distribution becomes more imbalanced, but it is still significantly superior to the baseline of precision-recall determined by the ratio of positives divided by positives and negatives. Sampling to balance the training set does not provide consistent improvement and deteriorates detection. In contrast, classifier hyper-parameter optimization improves recognition, but should be applied carefully depending on data volume and distribution. Finally, the developed method is robust to data variation over time up to some point. Retraining can be used when performance starts deteriorating.