Improved Bounds for Swap Multicalibration and Swap Omniprediction
This work addresses fairness and prediction accuracy in machine learning by providing improved bounds for swap multicalibration and omniprediction, which is incremental but offers significant gains over prior results.
The paper tackles the open problem of efficiently achieving low multicalibration error against bounded linear functions, proposing an algorithm that achieves O(T^{1/3}) ℓ₂-swap multicalibration error and improves rates to O(T^{2/3}) for ℓ₁-swap multicalibration and swap omniprediction, with sample complexities such as O(ε^{-3}) for learning an ε-swap omnipredictor.
In this paper, we consider the related problems of multicalibration -- a multigroup fairness notion and omniprediction -- a simultaneous loss minimization paradigm, both in the distributional and online settings. The recent work of Garg et al. (2024) raised the open problem of whether it is possible to efficiently achieve $O(\sqrt{T})$ $\ell_{2}$-multicalibration error against bounded linear functions. In this paper, we answer this question in a strongly affirmative sense. We propose an efficient algorithm that achieves $O(T^{\frac{1}{3}})$ $\ell_{2}$-swap multicalibration error (both in high probability and expectation). On propagating this bound onward, we obtain significantly improved rates for $\ell_{1}$-swap multicalibration and swap omniprediction for a loss class of convex Lipschitz functions. In particular, we show that our algorithm achieves $O(T^{\frac{2}{3}})$ $\ell_{1}$-swap multicalibration and swap omniprediction errors, thereby improving upon the previous best-known bound of $O(T^{\frac{7}{8}})$. As a consequence of our improved online results, we further obtain several improved sample complexity rates in the distributional setting. In particular, we establish a $O(\varepsilon ^ {-3})$ sample complexity of efficiently learning an $\varepsilon$-swap omnipredictor for the class of convex and Lipschitz functions, $O(\varepsilon ^{-2.5})$ sample complexity of efficiently learning an $\varepsilon$-swap agnostic learner for the squared loss, and $O(\varepsilon ^ {-5}), O(\varepsilon ^ {-2.5})$ sample complexities of learning $\ell_{1}, \ell_{2}$-swap multicalibrated predictors against linear functions, all of which significantly improve on the previous best-known bounds.