Quantifying Student Success with Generative AI: A Monte Carlo Simulation Informed by Systematic Review
It addresses the issue of quantifying GenAI's impact on student success for educators and policymakers, but is incremental as it builds on existing literature with a hybrid methodological approach.
This paper tackled the problem of understanding how student perceptions of generative AI relate to learning outcomes in higher education, using a systematic review and Monte Carlo simulation to find that usability and usefulness attitudes are significantly better predictors of positive learning achievement than affective or trust factors.
The exponential development of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) technologies like ChatGPT has raised increasing curiosity about their use in higher education, specifically with respect to how students view them, make use of them, and the implications for learning outcomes. This paper employs a hybrid methodological approach involving a systematic literature review and simulation-based modeling to explore student perceptions of GenAI use in the context of higher education. A total of nineteen empirical articles from 2023 through 2025 were selected from the PRISMA-based search targeting the Scopus database. Synthesis of emerging patterns from the literature was achieved by thematic categorization. Six of these had enough quantitative information, i.e., item-level means and standard deviations, to permit probabilistic modeling. One dataset, from the resulting subset, was itself selected as a representative case with which to illustrate inverse-variance weighting by Monte Carlo simulation, by virtue of its well-designed Likert scale format and thematic alignment with the use of computing systems by the researcher. The simulation provided a composite "Success Score" forecasting the strength of the relationship between student perceptions and learning achievements. Findings reveal that attitude factors concerned with usability and real-world usefulness are significantly better predictors of positive learning achievement than affective or trust-based factors. Such an interdisciplinary perspective provides a unique means of linking thematic results with predictive modelling, resonating with longstanding controversies about the proper use of GenAI tools within the university.