The surprising strength of weak classifiers for validating neural posterior estimates
This addresses a major open problem in simulation-based inference for researchers and practitioners by offering a reliable diagnostic tool, though it is incremental as it builds on existing work.
The paper tackles the challenge of validating neural posterior estimates in Bayesian inference by showing that even weak classifiers can be effectively used through a conformal variant of the classifier two-sample test, which provides exact finite-sample p-values and outperforms classical methods in benchmarks.
Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) has emerged as a powerful approach for amortized Bayesian inference when the true posterior $p(θ\mid y)$ is intractable or difficult to sample. But evaluating the accuracy of neural posterior estimates remains challenging, with existing methods suffering from major limitations. One appealing and widely used method is the classifier two-sample test (C2ST), where a classifier is trained to distinguish samples from the true posterior $p(θ\mid y)$ versus the learned NPE approximation $q(θ\mid y)$. Yet despite the appealing simplicity of the C2ST, its theoretical and practical reliability depend upon having access to a near-Bayes-optimal classifier -- a requirement that is rarely met and, at best, difficult to verify. Thus a major open question is: can a weak classifier still be useful for neural posterior validation? We show that the answer is yes. Building on the work of Hu and Lei, we present several key results for a conformal variant of the C2ST, which converts any trained classifier's scores -- even those of weak or over-fitted models -- into exact finite-sample p-values. We establish two key theoretical properties of the conformal C2ST: (i) finite-sample Type-I error control, and (ii) non-trivial power that degrades gently in tandem with the error of the trained classifier. The upshot is that even weak, biased, or overfit classifiers can still yield powerful and reliable tests. Empirically, the Conformal C2ST outperforms classical discriminative tests across a wide range of benchmarks. These results reveal the under appreciated strength of weak classifiers for validating neural posterior estimates, establishing the conformal C2ST as a practical, theoretically grounded diagnostic for modern simulation-based inference.