Platonic Representations for Poverty Mapping: Unified Vision-Language Codes or Agent-Induced Novelty?
This work addresses poverty mapping for socio-economic analysis, offering incremental improvements through multimodal integration.
The study tackled predicting household wealth in African neighborhoods by fusing satellite imagery and text data, achieving an R-squared of 0.77 with multimodal fusion compared to 0.63 for vision-only baselines, and found partial representational convergence between modalities.
We investigate whether socio-economic indicators like household wealth leave recoverable imprints in satellite imagery (capturing physical features) and Internet-sourced text (reflecting historical/economic narratives). Using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from African neighborhoods, we pair Landsat images with LLM-generated textual descriptions conditioned on location/year and text retrieved by an AI search agent from web sources. We develop a multimodal framework predicting household wealth (International Wealth Index) through five pipelines: (i) vision model on satellite images, (ii) LLM using only location/year, (iii) AI agent searching/synthesizing web text, (iv) joint image-text encoder, (v) ensemble of all signals. Our framework yields three contributions. First, fusing vision and agent/LLM text outperforms vision-only baselines in wealth prediction (e.g., R-squared of 0.77 vs. 0.63 on out-of-sample splits), with LLM-internal knowledge proving more effective than agent-retrieved text, improving robustness to out-of-country and out-of-time generalization. Second, we find partial representational convergence: fused embeddings from vision/language modalities correlate moderately (median cosine similarity of 0.60 after alignment), suggesting a shared latent code of material well-being while retaining complementary details, consistent with the Platonic Representation Hypothesis. Although LLM-only text outperforms agent-retrieved data, challenging our Agent-Induced Novelty Hypothesis, modest gains from combining agent data in some splits weakly support the notion that agent-gathered information introduces unique representational structures not fully captured by static LLM knowledge. Third, we release a large-scale multimodal dataset comprising more than 60,000 DHS clusters linked to satellite images, LLM-generated descriptions, and agent-retrieved texts.