The path to a goal: Understanding soccer possessions via path signatures
This addresses the problem of analyzing soccer possessions for sports analytics, representing an incremental improvement with a novel method for a known bottleneck.
The paper tackles predicting next actions in soccer possessions by using path signatures to encode spatio-temporal structure, outperforming a transformer-based benchmark with reduced computational cost and introducing a more reliable possession evaluation metric validated on Premier League data.
We present a novel framework for predicting next actions in soccer possessions by leveraging path signatures to encode their complex spatio-temporal structure. Unlike existing approaches, we do not rely on fixed historical windows and handcrafted features, but rather encode the entire recent possession, thereby avoiding the inclusion of potentially irrelevant or misleading historical information. Path signatures naturally capture the order and interaction of events, providing a mathematically grounded feature encoding for variable-length time series of irregular sampling frequencies without the necessity for manual feature engineering. Our proposed approach outperforms a transformer-based benchmark across various loss metrics and considerably reduces computational cost. Building on these results, we introduce a new possession evaluation metric based on well-established frameworks in soccer analytics, incorporating both predicted action type probabilities and action location. Our metric shows greater reliability than existing metrics in domain-specific comparisons. Finally, we validate our approach through a detailed analysis of the 2017/18 Premier League season and discuss further applications and future extensions.