Reliability comparison of vessel trajectory prediction models via Probability of Detection
This work addresses the problem of unreliable trajectory predictions for inland waterways navigation, offering an incremental improvement by focusing on reliability assessment rather than new model development.
This paper tackles vessel trajectory prediction by evaluating deep learning models' reliability across varying traffic complexities using probability of detection analysis, finding that the assessment provides insights into model strengths and weaknesses for different prediction horizons.
This contribution addresses vessel trajectory prediction (VTP), focusing on the evaluation of different deep learning-based approaches. The objective is to assess model performance in diverse traffic complexities and compare the reliability of the approaches. While previous VTP models overlook the specific traffic situation complexity and lack reliability assessments, this research uses a probability of detection analysis to quantify model reliability in varying traffic scenarios, thus going beyond common error distribution analyses. All models are evaluated on test samples categorized according to their traffic situation during the prediction horizon, with performance metrics and reliability estimates obtained for each category. The results of this comprehensive evaluation provide a deeper understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the different prediction approaches, along with their reliability in terms of the prediction horizon lengths for which safe forecasts can be guaranteed. These findings can inform the development of more reliable vessel trajectory prediction approaches, enhancing safety and efficiency in future inland waterways navigation.