Optimizing In-Context Learning for Efficient Full Conformal Prediction
This work addresses the problem of reliable uncertainty quantification for trustworthy AI, offering an incremental improvement over existing conformal prediction methods.
The paper tackled the trade-off between data efficiency and computational cost in conformal prediction by introducing an enhanced in-context learning framework that simulates retraining without actual retraining, achieving superior efficiency-coverage trade-offs in experiments.
Reliable uncertainty quantification is critical for trustworthy AI. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides prediction sets with distribution-free coverage guarantees, but its two main variants face complementary limitations. Split CP (SCP) suffers from data inefficiency due to dataset partitioning, while full CP (FCP) improves data efficiency at the cost of prohibitive retraining complexity. Recent approaches based on meta-learning or in-context learning (ICL) partially mitigate these drawbacks. However, they rely on training procedures not specifically tailored to CP, which may yield large prediction sets. We introduce an efficient FCP framework, termed enhanced ICL-based FCP (E-ICL+FCP), which employs a permutation-invariant Transformer-based ICL model trained with a CP-aware loss. By simulating the multiple retrained models required by FCP without actual retraining, E-ICL+FCP preserves coverage while markedly reducing both inefficiency and computational overhead. Experiments on synthetic and real tasks demonstrate that E-ICL+FCP attains superior efficiency-coverage trade-offs compared to existing SCP and FCP baselines.