Individualized and Interpretable Sleep Forecasting via a Two-Stage Adaptive Spatial-Temporal Model
This provides an interpretable and personalized forecasting tool for healthcare providers and individuals using wearable device data, though it appears incremental as it builds on existing spatial-temporal and adaptation methods.
The paper tackles sleep quality prediction by introducing a two-stage adaptive spatial-temporal model that combines multi-scale convolutional layers, recurrent layers with attention, and domain adaptation, achieving a best RMSE of 0.216 for one-day predictions and demonstrating good performance for longer horizons.
Sleep quality significantly impacts well-being. Therefore, healthcare providers and individuals need accessible and reliable forecasting tools for preventive interventions. This paper introduces an interpretable, individualized two-stage adaptive spatial-temporal model for predicting sleep quality scores. Our proposed framework combines multi-scale convolutional layers to model spatial interactions across multiple input variables, recurrent layers and attention mechanisms to capture long-term temporal dependencies, and a two-stage domain adaptation strategy to enhance generalization. The first adaptation stage is applied during training to mitigate overfitting on the training set. In the second stage, a source-free test-time adaptation mechanism is employed to adapt the model to new users without requiring labels. We conducted various experiments with five input window sizes (3, 5, 7, 9, and 11 days) and five prediction window sizes (1, 3, 5, 7, and 9 days). Our model consistently outperformed time series forecasting baseline approaches, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Informer, PatchTST, and TimesNet. The best performance was achieved with a three-day input window and a one-day prediction window, yielding a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.216. Furthermore, the model demonstrated good predictive performance even for longer forecasting horizons (e.g, with a 0.257 RMSE for a three-day prediction window), highlighting its practical utility for real-world applications. We also conducted an explainability analysis to examine how different features influence sleep quality. These findings proved that the proposed framework offers a robust, adaptive, and explainable solution for personalized sleep forecasting using sparse data from commercial wearable devices.