Water Demand Forecasting of District Metered Areas through Learned Consumer Representations
This work addresses water resource management challenges for utilities and policymakers, offering an incremental improvement in forecasting accuracy.
The paper tackles short-term water demand forecasting for District Metered Areas by using unsupervised contrastive learning to categorize consumer behaviors and incorporating these as features into a wavelet-transformed convolutional network with cross-attention, achieving a maximum improvement of 4.9% in MAPE across different DMAs.
Advancements in smart metering technologies have significantly improved the ability to monitor and manage water utilities. In the context of increasing uncertainty due to climate change, securing water resources and supply has emerged as an urgent global issue with extensive socioeconomic ramifications. Hourly consumption data from end-users have yielded substantial insights for projecting demand across regions characterized by diverse consumption patterns. Nevertheless, the prediction of water demand remains challenging due to influencing non-deterministic factors, such as meteorological conditions. This work introduces a novel method for short-term water demand forecasting for District Metered Areas (DMAs) which encompass commercial, agricultural, and residential consumers. Unsupervised contrastive learning is applied to categorize end-users according to distinct consumption behaviors present within a DMA. Subsequently, the distinct consumption behaviors are utilized as features in the ensuing demand forecasting task using wavelet-transformed convolutional networks that incorporate a cross-attention mechanism combining both historical data and the derived representations. The proposed approach is evaluated on real-world DMAs over a six-month period, demonstrating improved forecasting performance in terms of MAPE across different DMAs, with a maximum improvement of 4.9%. Additionally, it identifies consumers whose behavior is shaped by socioeconomic factors, enhancing prior knowledge about the deterministic patterns that influence demand.