Machine Learning for Campus Energy Resilience: Clustering and Time-Series Forecasting in Intelligent Load Shedding
This work addresses energy resilience for universities, but it is incremental as it applies existing methods to a specific campus dataset.
The study tackled campus energy management by developing a machine learning framework for intelligent load shedding at the University of Lagos, resulting in a fairer, data-driven strategy that reduces inefficiencies and supports sustainable energy management, with Prophet identified as the most reliable forecasting model.
The growing demand for reliable electricity in universities necessitates intelligent energy management. This study proposes a machine learning-based load shedding framework for the University of Lagos, designed to optimize distribution and reduce waste. The methodology followed three main stages. First, a dataset of 3,648 hourly records from 55 buildings was compiled to develop building-level consumption models. Second, Principal Component Analysis was applied for dimensionality reduction, and clustering validation techniques were used to determine the optimal number of demand groups. Mini-Batch K-Means was then employed to classify buildings into high-, medium-, and low-demand clusters. Finally, short-term load forecasting was performed at the cluster level using multiple statistical and deep learning models, including ARIMA, SARIMA, Prophet, LSTM, and GRU. Results showed Prophet offered the most reliable forecasts, while Mini-Batch K-Means achieved stable clustering performance. By integrating clustering with forecasting, the framework enabled a fairer, data-driven load shedding strategy that reduces inefficiencies and supports climate change mitigation through sustainable energy management.