Variational Autoencoders-based Detection of Extremes in Plant Productivity in an Earth System Model
This addresses the need for robust anomaly detection in terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics for climate researchers, though it is incremental as it applies an existing ML method to a new domain.
This study applied variational autoencoders (VAE) to detect extreme events in plant productivity from climate model simulations, finding that VAE performed comparably to traditional singular spectral analysis (SSA) methods with reconstruction error thresholds of 179-756 GgC versus 100-784 GgC across regions and periods.
Climate anomalies significantly impact terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics, necessitating robust methods for detecting and analyzing anomalous behavior in plant productivity. This study presents a novel application of variational autoencoders (VAE) for identifying extreme events in gross primary productivity (GPP) from Community Earth System Model version 2 simulations across four AR6 regions in the Continental United States. We compare VAE-based anomaly detection with traditional singular spectral analysis (SSA) methods across three time periods: 1850-80, 1950-80, and 2050-80 under the SSP585 scenario. The VAE architecture employs three dense layers and a latent space with an input sequence length of 12 months, trained on a normalized GPP time series to reconstruct the GPP and identifying anomalies based on reconstruction errors. Extreme events are defined using 5th percentile thresholds applied to both VAE and SSA anomalies. Results demonstrate strong regional agreement between VAE and SSA methods in spatial patterns of extreme event frequencies, despite VAE producing higher threshold values (179-756 GgC for VAE vs. 100-784 GgC for SSA across regions and periods). Both methods reveal increasing magnitudes and frequencies of negative carbon cycle extremes toward 2050-80, particularly in Western and Central North America. The VAE approach shows comparable performance to established SSA techniques, while offering computational advantages and enhanced capability for capturing non-linear temporal dependencies in carbon cycle variability. Unlike SSA, the VAE method does not require one to define the periodicity of the signals in the data; it discovers them from the data.