Value Flows
This work addresses the need for better uncertainty estimation in decision-making for reinforcement learning, though it is incremental by building on existing distributional RL methods.
The paper tackled the problem of estimating full future return distributions in reinforcement learning by using flow-based models, achieving a 1.3x improvement in success rates on benchmark tasks.
While most reinforcement learning methods today flatten the distribution of future returns to a single scalar value, distributional RL methods exploit the return distribution to provide stronger learning signals and to enable applications in exploration and safe RL. While the predominant method for estimating the return distribution is by modeling it as a categorical distribution over discrete bins or estimating a finite number of quantiles, such approaches leave unanswered questions about the fine-grained structure of the return distribution and about how to distinguish states with high return uncertainty for decision-making. The key idea in this paper is to use modern, flexible flow-based models to estimate the full future return distributions and identify those states with high return variance. We do so by formulating a new flow-matching objective that generates probability density paths satisfying the distributional Bellman equation. Building upon the learned flow models, we estimate the return uncertainty of distinct states using a new flow derivative ODE. We additionally use this uncertainty information to prioritize learning a more accurate return estimation on certain transitions. We compare our method (Value Flows) with prior methods in the offline and online-to-online settings. Experiments on $37$ state-based and $25$ image-based benchmark tasks demonstrate that Value Flows achieves a $1.3\times$ improvement on average in success rates. Website: https://pd-perry.github.io/value-flows Code: https://github.com/chongyi-zheng/value-flows