USA Tariffs Effect: Machine Learning Insights into the Stock Market
For investors and policymakers, this work provides a data-driven analysis of how US trade policy shocks propagate to foreign stock markets, though the findings are limited to a single event and index.
This study analyzes the impact of US tariffs announced on 02-Apr-2025 on the Australian S&P/ASX 200 index using machine learning regression models, finding that tariff events significantly affected market fluctuations. The comparative assessment of models shows varying predictive accuracy, with no single model universally outperforming others.
The imposition of tariffs by President Trump during his second term had far-reaching consequences for global markets, including Australia. This study investigates how both the announcement and subsequent implementation of these tariffs, specifically on 02-Apr-2025, affected the Australian stock market, focusing on the S\&P/ASX 200 index over the period from 21-Jan-2025 to 25-Jul-2025. To accurately capture the significance and behavior of market fluctuations, the exploratory data analysis (EDA) techniques are applied. Furthermore, the impact of tariffs on stock performance is evaluated using machine learning-based regression models. A comparative assessment of these models is conducted to determine their predictive accuracy and robustness in capturing tariff-related market responses.