Hybrid Physics-ML Model for Forward Osmosis Flux with Complete Uncertainty Quantification
This provides a robust and reliable model for optimizing forward osmosis processes, which is a low-energy membrane separation technology, though it appears incremental as it combines existing methods in a novel way.
This study tackled the challenge of accurately modeling water flux in forward osmosis by developing a hybrid physics-ML framework using Gaussian Process Regression, achieving a state-of-the-art MAPE of 0.26% and R2 of 0.999 on test data with only 120 training points.
Forward Osmosis (FO) is a promising low-energy membrane separation technology, but challenges in accurately modelling its water flux (Jw) persist due to complex internal mass transfer phenomena. Traditional mechanistic models struggle with empirical parameter variability, while purely data-driven models lack physical consistency and rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ). This study introduces a novel Robust Hybrid Physics-ML framework employing Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) for highly accurate, uncertainty-aware Jw prediction. The core innovation lies in training the GPR on the residual error between the detailed, non-linear FO physical model prediction (Jw_physical) and the experimental water flux (Jw_actual). Crucially, we implement a full UQ methodology by decomposing the total predictive variance (sigma2_total) into model uncertainty (epistemic, from GPR's posterior variance) and input uncertainty (aleatoric, analytically propagated via the Delta method for multi-variate correlated inputs). Leveraging the inherent strength of GPR in low-data regimes, the model, trained on a meagre 120 data points, achieved a state-of-the-art Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.26% and an R2 of 0.999 on the independent test data, validating a truly robust and reliable surrogate model for advanced FO process optimization and digital twin development.