WAY: Estimation of Vessel Destination in Worldwide AIS Trajectory
This addresses maritime surveillance challenges for shipping and logistics by improving destination prediction, though it appears incremental as it builds on existing spatial grid and deep learning approaches.
The paper tackles vessel destination estimation from global AIS data by proposing a deep learning architecture called WAY, which processes reformulated trajectories and achieves superior performance over conventional methods, with experiments on 5-year data showing gains from a novel Gradient Dropout technique.
The Automatic Identification System (AIS) enables data-driven maritime surveillance but suffers from reliability issues and irregular intervals. We address vessel destination estimation using global-scope AIS data by proposing a differentiated approach that recasts long port-to-port trajectories as a nested sequence structure. Using spatial grids, this method mitigates spatio-temporal bias while preserving detailed resolution. We introduce a novel deep learning architecture, WAY, designed to process these reformulated trajectories for long-term destination estimation days to weeks in advance. WAY comprises a trajectory representation layer and Channel-Aggregative Sequential Processing (CASP) blocks. The representation layer generates multi-channel vector sequences from kinematic and non-kinematic features. CASP blocks utilize multi-headed channel- and self-attention for aggregation and sequential information delivery. Additionally, we propose a task-specialized Gradient Dropout (GD) technique to enable many-to-many training on single labels, preventing biased feedback surges by stochastically blocking gradient flow based on sample length. Experiments on 5-year AIS data demonstrate WAY's superiority over conventional spatial grid-based approaches regardless of trajectory progression. Results further confirm that adopting GD leads to performance gains. Finally, we explore WAY's potential for real-world application through multitask learning for ETA estimation.