Physics-Guided Tiny-Mamba Transformer for Reliability-Aware Early Fault Warning
This work addresses reliability-centered prognostics for rotating machinery, offering a calibrated and interpretable solution for deployment in health management, though it appears incremental as it builds on existing methods with hybrid components.
The paper tackled early fault warning for rotating machinery under nonstationary conditions and class imbalance by proposing the Physics-Guided Tiny-Mamba Transformer (PG-TMT), which achieved higher precision-recall AUC, competitive ROC AUC, and shorter mean time-to-detect at matched false-alarm intensity across multiple datasets.
Reliability-centered prognostics for rotating machinery requires early warning signals that remain accurate under nonstationary operating conditions, domain shifts across speed/load/sensors, and severe class imbalance, while keeping the false-alarm rate small and predictable. We propose the Physics-Guided Tiny-Mamba Transformer (PG-TMT), a compact tri-branch encoder tailored for online condition monitoring. A depthwise-separable convolutional stem captures micro-transients, a Tiny-Mamba state-space branch models near-linear long-range dynamics, and a lightweight local Transformer encodes cross-channel resonances. We derive an analytic temporal-to-spectral mapping that ties the model's attention spectrum to classical bearing fault-order bands, yielding a band-alignment score that quantifies physical plausibility and provides physics-grounded explanations. To ensure decision reliability, healthy-score exceedances are modeled with extreme-value theory (EVT), which yields an on-threshold achieving a target false-alarm intensity (events/hour); a dual-threshold hysteresis with a minimum hold time further suppresses chatter. Under a leakage-free streaming protocol with right-censoring of missed detections on CWRU, Paderborn, XJTU-SY, and an industrial pilot, PG-TMT attains higher precision-recall AUC (primary under imbalance), competitive or better ROC AUC, and shorter mean time-to-detect at matched false-alarm intensity, together with strong cross-domain transfer. By coupling physics-aligned representations with EVT-calibrated decision rules, PG-TMT delivers calibrated, interpretable, and deployment-ready early warnings for reliability-centric prognostics and health management.