Quantile-Physics Hybrid Framework for Safe-Speed Recommendation under Diverse Weather Conditions Leveraging Connected Vehicle and Road Weather Information Systems Data
This work addresses traffic safety for drivers in inclement weather, representing an incremental improvement by combining existing methods with safety constraints.
This study tackles the problem of recommending safe driving speeds under diverse weather conditions by proposing a hybrid predictive framework that fuses quantile regression forests with physics-based constraints, achieving a mean absolute error of 1.55 mph and 96.43% of median speed predictions within 5 mph.
Inclement weather conditions can significantly impact driver visibility and tire-road surface friction, requiring adjusted safe driving speeds to reduce crash risk. This study proposes a hybrid predictive framework that recommends real-time safe speed intervals for freeway travel under diverse weather conditions. Leveraging high-resolution Connected Vehicle (CV) data and Road Weather Information System (RWIS) data collected in Buffalo, NY, from 2022 to 2023, we construct a spatiotemporally aligned dataset containing over 6.6 million records across 73 days. The core model employs Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) to estimate vehicle speed distributions in 10-minute windows, using 26 input features that capture meteorological, pavement, and temporal conditions. To enforce safety constraints, a physics-based upper speed limit is computed for each interval based on real-time road grip and visibility, ensuring that vehicles can safely stop within their sight distance. The final recommended interval fuses QRF-predicted quantiles with both posted speed limits and the physics-derived upper bound. Experimental results demonstrate strong predictive performance: the QRF model achieves a mean absolute error of 1.55 mph, with 96.43% of median speed predictions within 5 mph, a PICP (50%) of 48.55%, and robust generalization across weather types. The model's ability to respond to changing weather conditions and generalize across road segments shows promise for real-world deployment, thereby improving traffic safety and reducing weather-related crashes.