What hackers talk about when they talk about AI: Early-stage diffusion of a cybercrime innovation
This study addresses the early-stage diffusion of AI in cybercrime, providing insights for law enforcement and policymakers to mitigate emerging threats.
The paper examined how cybercriminals discuss and exploit AI for illicit purposes by analyzing over 160 forum conversations, revealing their growing curiosity and attempts to misuse legal tools and develop custom models, while also noting doubts about AI's effectiveness and impacts on their operations.
The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) is raising concerns about its potential to transform cybercrime. Beyond empowering novice offenders, AI stands to intensify the scale and sophistication of attacks by seasoned cybercriminals. This paper examines the evolving relationship between cybercriminals and AI using a unique dataset from a cyber threat intelligence platform. Analyzing more than 160 cybercrime forum conversations collected over seven months, our research reveals how cybercriminals understand AI and discuss how they can exploit its capabilities. Their exchanges reflect growing curiosity about AI's criminal applications through legal tools and dedicated criminal tools, but also doubts and anxieties about AI's effectiveness and its effects on their business models and operational security. The study documents attempts to misuse legitimate AI tools and develop bespoke models tailored for illicit purposes. Combining the diffusion of innovation framework with thematic analysis, the paper provides an in-depth view of emerging AI-enabled cybercrime and offers practical insights for law enforcement and policymakers.