Mapping the long-term trajectories of political violence in Africa
This study addresses the gap in conflict research by moving beyond discrete transitions to understand the life cycles of violence, which is significant for researchers and policymakers focusing on political violence in Africa.
The paper tackles the problem of modeling political violence by introducing a spatially explicit longitudinal sequence analysis to capture longer trajectories of violence across time and space in Africa, identifying six recurrent patterns from short-lived outbreaks to protracted high-intensity conflicts.
Existing models of political violence often emphasize discrete transitions, when conflicts emerge, escalate, or subside, without considering the longer trajectories of violence that accumulate across time and space. This paper introduces a spatially explicit longitudinal sequence analysis to address this gap. Using event-level data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset covering Africa from 1997 to 2024, we classify locations according to the intensity and spatial concentration of violence, tracing how these states evolve into distinct conflict trajectories. Applying optimal matching and clustering techniques, we identify six recurrent patterns ranging from short-lived, localized outbreaks to protracted high-intensity conflicts. We further assess how these trajectories align across neighboring areas, revealing evidence of spatial interdependence, particularly in border regions. By highlighting the temporal rhythms and geographic linkages of political violence, the study advances conflict research beyond isolated transitions and provides a framework for understanding the life cycles of violence.