Is the future of AI green? What can innovation diffusion models say about generative AI's environmental impact?
This addresses concerns about AI's environmental footprint for policymakers and industry stakeholders, but it is incremental as it applies an existing model to a new context.
The paper tackles the problem of predicting generative AI's environmental impact by applying the A-U innovation diffusion model to the GAI ecosystem, finding that while GAI will not be green, its impact may be less severe than often claimed, depending on the dominant business model.
The rise of generative artificial intelligence (GAI) has led to alarming predictions about its environmental impact. However, these predictions often overlook the fact that the diffusion of innovation is accompanied by the evolution of products and the optimization of their performance, primarily for economic reasons. This can also reduce their environmental impact. By analyzing the GAI ecosystem using the classic A-U innovation diffusion model, we can forecast this industry's structure and how its environmental impact will evolve. While GAI will never be green, its impact may not be as problematic as is sometimes claimed. However, this depends on which business model becomes dominant.