Decoding Market Emotions in Cryptocurrency Tweets via Predictive Statement Classification with Machine Learning and Transformers
This work addresses the need for automated sentiment and prediction analysis in cryptocurrency social media, offering incremental improvements in classification accuracy for traders and analysts.
The study tackled the problem of identifying predictive statements in cryptocurrency tweets by developing a two-stage classification framework, achieving the highest F1-scores with transformer models for binary classification and traditional machine learning for multi-class categorization, while revealing distinct emotional patterns linked to prediction categories.
The growing prominence of cryptocurrencies has triggered widespread public engagement and increased speculative activity, particularly on social media platforms. This study introduces a novel classification framework for identifying predictive statements in cryptocurrency-related tweets, focusing on five popular cryptocurrencies: Cardano, Matic, Binance, Ripple, and Fantom. The classification process is divided into two stages: Task 1 involves binary classification to distinguish between Predictive and Non-Predictive statements. Tweets identified as Predictive proceed to Task 2, where they are further categorized as Incremental, Decremental, or Neutral. To build a robust dataset, we combined manual and GPT-based annotation methods and utilized SenticNet to extract emotion features corresponding to each prediction category. To address class imbalance, GPT-generated paraphrasing was employed for data augmentation. We evaluated a wide range of machine learning, deep learning, and transformer-based models across both tasks. The results show that GPT-based balancing significantly enhanced model performance, with transformer models achieving the highest F1-score in Task 1, while traditional machine learning models performed best in Task 2. Furthermore, our emotion analysis revealed distinct emotional patterns associated with each prediction category across the different cryptocurrencies.