AI prediction leads people to forgo guaranteed rewards
For decision-makers and AI designers, this reveals a novel psychological effect where AI predictions can cause people to self-constrain their behavior, even at a cost.
In a behavioral implementation of Newcomb's paradox with 1,305 participants, the study found that belief in AI's predictive authority led over 40% of participants to forgo a guaranteed reward, increasing the odds by a factor of 3.39 and reducing earnings by 10.7-42.9%.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is understood to affect the content of people's decisions. Here, using a behavioral implementation of the classic Newcomb's paradox in 1,305 participants, we show that AI can also change how people decide. In this paradigm, belief in predictive authority can lead individuals to constrain decision-making, forgoing a guaranteed reward. Over 40% of participants treated AI as such a predictive authority. This significantly increased the odds of forgoing the guaranteed reward by a factor of 3.39 (95% CI: 2.45-4.70) compared with random framing, and reduced earnings by 10.7-42.9%. The effect appeared across AI presentations and decision contexts and persisted even when predictions failed. When people believe AI can predict their behavior, they may self-constrain it in anticipation of that prediction.