When Agent Markets Arrive
This work addresses the urgent need for informed institutional design in emerging AI agent markets, which is incremental as it builds on existing concepts but provides specific insights for platform developers.
The paper tackles the problem of designing economic infrastructure for AI agent markets by introducing Diagon, a programmable market system, and finds that market exchange generates 3.2 times the wealth of self-sufficient agents, but this depends on institutional structures like identity transparency and competitive selection.
AI agents are increasingly transacting on behalf of users -- delegating tasks, spending budgets, and negotiating with unfamiliar counterparties. From skill marketplaces to agent-only bazaars, the economic infrastructure of these emerging platforms is being built ad-hoc, yet early design choices tend to lock in; understanding what dynamics they produce is urgent. We present \diagon, a programmable market system designed to inform the institutional design of near-future agent cognitive-labour markets. \diagon is populated by heterogeneous tool-using agents, making the full cycle of job posting, bidding, negotiation, execution, payment, and reputation accumulation end-to-end observable and experimentally manipulable. We instantiate one market form to demonstrate \diagon. We find that market exchange generates \(3.2\times\) the wealth of self-sufficient agents, but these gains depend strongly on institutional structure; for example, interventions such as identity transparency and stronger competitive selection can degrade market performance rather than improve it. These findings highlight concrete design requirements for the economic infrastructure of the agent era. Code and data are available at https://github.com/assassin808/diagon.