Context-Integrated Adversarial Learning for Predictive Modelling of Stock Price Dynamics
For financial analysts and traders, this work offers a method to improve stock price prediction during volatile periods, though the gains are incremental over existing deep learning approaches.
The paper proposes a context-sensitive adversarial learning model that integrates distribution-based generative modeling with sentiment features from NLP to predict stock prices, outperforming ARIMA and LSTM baselines on U.S. equities across multiple error metrics.
It is a challenging task to forecast equity prices in fast moving financial markets as this becomes even more difficult when the predictive signal is based on non-homogeneous information channels. The classical statistical methods, especially the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, limit their analytical ability with the linear assumptions that prevent the modeling of complex temporal dynamics. In contrast, complex neural networks, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, are also skilled at capturing sequential interaction effects; they however tend to collapse in the face of abrupt shifts in volatility and changing distributions. In this paper we introduce a context-sensitive adversarial learning model to predict equity prices in this work, which is synthesized distribution-based generative modelling with sentiment-based auxiliary information obtained through Natural Language Processing (NLP). The architecture uses adversarial training to model future price movements and incorporates contextual sentiment features derived using financial textual data. Through a collective utilization of quantitative market indicators along with the additional contextual cues, the framework hopes to enhance the reliability of forecasts during the periods of increased volatility and regime change. Empirical evaluation of a sample of U.S. equities testifies that the presented approach outperforms the traditional ARIMA and LSTM baselines in a range of measures of error. These findings imply that context-sensitive adversarial paradigm is an effective instrument of enhancing stock price prediction effectiveness in complex financial environments characterized by uncertainty and structural changes.