SCOUT: Cyclic Causal Discovery Under Soft Interventions with Unknown Targets
It addresses the challenging problem of causal discovery in real-world systems that are cyclic, nonlinear, and have unknown intervention targets, which is a significant advance over existing methods that rely on restrictive assumptions.
SCOUT learns nonlinear cyclic causal relationships from soft interventional data with unknown targets, outperforming state-of-the-art methods in graph and target recovery across various settings.
Learning causal relationships between variables from data is a fundamental research area with many applications across disciplines. Most existing causal discovery algorithms rely on the assumptions that (i) the underlying system is acyclic, (ii) the exogenous noise variables are Gaussian, and (iii) the intervention targets for the data-generating experiments are known. While these assumptions simplify the analysis, they are violated in real-life systems. Most existing methods that address these issues either assume the underlying model is linear or are constrained to operate in limited interventional settings. To that end, we propose SCOUT, a novel causal discovery framework for learning nonlinear cyclic causal relationships from soft interventional data with unknown targets. Our approach maximizes the data log-likelihood to recover the graph structure, using two normalizing-flow architectures: contractive residual flows and neural spline flows. Through experiments on synthetic and real-world data, we show that SCOUT outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both causal graph recovery and unknown target recovery across various interventional and noise settings.