Mechanism-Dependent Antagonism of Auxiliary Information in Substation-Level Load Disaggregation for Distribution Network Planning
For distribution network planners using load disaggregation, this paper reveals that auxiliary data can harm learned models and that evaluation metrics must include both RMSE and correlation.
The paper investigates how auxiliary data (Nighttime Light intensity and substation proximity) affects substation-level load disaggregation under different demand-weighting methods (static vs. learned GNN). It finds that the same auxiliary data reduces RMSE by 41% for static weighting but increases it by 21% for GNN weighting under multiplicative post-correction, and that additive post-correction eliminates this antagonism.
Open-source energy system models disaggregate zonal electricity demand to substations through Voronoi-based preprocessing pipelines that combine socioeconomic weighting with auxiliary spatial corrections. Whether the same auxiliary data helps or harms when the weighting component shifts from rule-based to learned has not been investigated. We fix Voronoi partitioning and cross two design axes on metered demand from 1,891 British primary substations: the demand-weighting method and the mechanism through which Nighttime Light (NTL) intensity and substation-proximity signals enter the allocation, giving 15 configurations. Mechanism-isolation experiments further test additive post-correction and random-noise controls to pinpoint the structural cause of any performance reversal. The same auxiliary data reduces RMSE by 41 % on the static base but increases it by 21 % on the GNN base under multiplicative post-correction (p < 0.001 for both); the best static pipeline outperforms the best GNN variant by 19 %. Post-correction on the GNN improves rank-order correlation (p < 0.001) yet worsens absolute error, so correlation-only evaluation masks the calibration penalty. The isolation experiments trace this reversal to the multiplicative correction form under demand conservation constraints, not to signal redundancy; switching to additive post-correction eliminates the antagonism entirely. A transfer check on 13 German primary substations confirms directional replication and shows amplified antagonism where the GNN baseline already explains over 95 % of demand variance. The NTL and proximity signals behind the 41 % static improvement are publicly available at no cost and should be adopted as default corrections in static pipelines; method evaluation should report RMSE and correlation jointly, as the two metrics diverge under post-correction on learned representations.