Validation-Gated Multi-Agent Governance for Online Adaptation of Thermal-Hydraulic Surrogate Models under Operating-Regime Shift
For nuclear or thermal-hydraulic engineers needing reliable real-time forecasting, this provides a guarded, auditable adaptation method that improves accuracy without compromising safety, though statistical significance is limited by small sample size.
This work introduces a multi-agent governance framework for online adaptation of thermal-hydraulic surrogate models, achieving a 19.0% reduction in mean absolute error (from 7.06 to 5.72) and a 37% reduction in warning-exceedance ratio (from 56.8% to 35.8%) compared to static deployment under operating-regime shift.
Artificial-intelligence surrogates can support second-by-second thermal-hydraulic forecasting, but models selected and frozen offline may become condition-locked once deployed outside their pretraining envelope. This study develops a guarded continual-adaptation framework for experimental thermal-hydraulic loop data in which role-separated agents - Monitor, Diagnosis, Adaptation, Safety-Auditor, and Orchestrator - diagnose error signatures, prioritize candidate model families, and review promotions, while deterministic champion-challenger gates and background shadow learning retain final authority over model replacement. Seven surrogate families were screened by blocked three-fold cross-validation, and a temporal Fourier neural operator was selected as the initial champion for 60-s-history-to-10-s-trajectory forecasting on two held-out transients, with three seeds per adaptive mode. Static deployment gave a channel-averaged MAE of 7.06 and a 56.8% warning-exceedance ratio; rule-based adaptation reduced MAE to 6.54, whereas shadow refresh alone remained close to Static. The MA-Full mode, in which the role-separated multi-agent council reviews every evaluated stream step, achieved the lowest mean error, 5.72, and 35.8% exceedance, corresponding to a 19.0% improvement over Static. Paired bootstrap intervals against Static excluded zero, although intervals among adaptive modes overlapped and the six paired units limit broad statistical claims. Validated promotions from the neural operator to Transformer and graph neural network indicate that logged, gate-controlled adaptation can support auditable surrogate evolution while deterministic gates retain deployment authority.