Dark Path: An Analysis of the Belt & Road Initiative in El Salvador
For policymakers and researchers concerned with national security in small nations, this exploratory study provides a foundational understanding of BRI risks in El Salvador.
The paper analyzes the Belt & Road Initiative's impact on El Salvador, finding that it poses national security and supply-chain risks through influential-subterfuge and loss of digital sovereignty, contradicting existing Salvadoran laws.
The Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) is a concerted effort from Ministries under the People's Republic of China (PRC) to diplomatically and economically impose its will upon other nations. El Salvador is a US partner and a beneficiary of foreign investment under the BRI. Recent changes to Salvadoran law do not address the implied risks to the nation's supply-chain and cyber infrastructure. This work addresses the gap by exploring previously limited analysis on BRI activities, its intersection with Salvadoran law, and the national security risks introduced by supply-chain reliance from the BRI. This exploratory study examined a portion of the William & Mary AidData dataset filtered on El Salvador, social media posts, news articles, white papers, and law published by the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador. The analysis suggests that the BRI poses a national security and supply-chain risk to El Salvador through influential-subterfuge, loss of digital sovereignty, which contradicts the State Cybersecurity Agency (ACE) and existing Salvadoran laws. This study provides a foundational understanding and regional context for future research.