Long-term Traffic Simulation via Structured Autoregressive Modeling
For autonomous driving research, this work provides a scalable simulation framework and a more reliable evaluation metric for long-horizon multi-agent traffic scenarios.
RosettaSim achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Waymo Open Sim Agent Challenge for both short- and long-term traffic simulation by using a structured autoregressive model with frozen LLMs. The proposed Retrieval-based Traffic Evaluation (RTE) metric shows stronger correlation (r=0.83) with long-horizon fidelity than existing metrics (r=0.74).
Interactive traffic simulation is a vital world model for autonomous driving. A central challenge in long-horizon simulation is modeling sustained multi-agent interactions, which is further exacerbated by dynamic token cardinality as agents continuously enter and exit the scene. In this work, we propose that the solution lies in the synergy between the architectural inductive biases and statistical priors of large-scale sequence models, e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs). Our probing experiments reveal that the transferability of attention mechanisms and the distributional consistency between motion tokens and natural language enable small-scale, heavily frozen LLMs to rapidly adapt to traffic modeling. Building on this insight, we introduce RosettaSim, a unified framework that projects scene topology, agent states, and spawning intents into a structured autoregressive stream with variable length, achieving both strong short-term accuracy and stable long-horizon simulation fidelity. Furthermore, evaluating extended rollouts presents yet another hurdle, as one-to-one agent correspondence inevitably fades over time. To address this, we introduce Retrieval-based Traffic Evaluation (RTE), which retrieves semantically similar real-world scenarios as context-aware reference anchors. Experiments on the Waymo Open Sim Agent Challenge (WOSAC) demonstrate that RosettaSim achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short- and long-term simulation. Furthermore, RTE exhibits a stronger correlation with standard metrics ($r=0.83$) than existing approaches ($r=0.74$), indicating improved alignment with long-horizon simulation fidelity.