Can the Cloud Drive? Infrastructure Feasibility of Offloading Autonomous Driving Across 5G and 6G
For autonomous vehicle developers, it provides a quantitative framework to determine when and where cloud offloading becomes feasible, highlighting that latency and cost constraints dominate over communication for near-term VLA models.
This paper analyzes the feasibility of offloading autonomous driving inference to the cloud across 5G and 6G networks, finding that communication binds first in dense cells, compute binds next under reactive budgets (VLA models are latency-infeasible until ~2027), and cost binds last with cloud GPUs undercutting onboard hardware for VLA models.
Frontier autonomous-driving models -- especially vision-language-action (VLA) models, whose forward pass approaches $\sim$60~TFLOPs -- are outgrowing economical onboard deployment, since peak hardware sits idle most of the day. Cloud inference can instead share GPUs across active vehicles, but the vehicle must upload through a capacity-limited uplink, reach a GPU without queueing, and return a decision within the closed-loop budget. This paper asks: can the cloud drive? We answer with an analytical framework coupling communication limits, a roofline GPU service model, stochastic latency, and utilization-aware cost across three model classes, three offloading strategies, and three communication generations, applied to New York City. Separating a reactive 100~ms budget from a 300~ms deliberative tier (presuming an onboard reactive fallback), we find three \emph{nested} binding regimes. Communication binds first in dense cells: 5G fails early, 5G-Advanced is the practical threshold for feature-level offloading, and 6G adds headroom. Compute binds next under the reactive budget: near-term VLA is latency-infeasible regardless of bandwidth, because autoregressive FP16 decode is memory-bandwidth-bound (~114 ms on 2025 hardware). Its floor clears 100 ms around 2027; 6G then admits feature-level VLA by ~2028, 5G-Advanced only at light loading and not the dense corridor, and the deliberative tier from 2026. Cost binds last: once admissible, utilization-pooled cloud GPUs undercut onboard hardware for VLA, whose baseline (up to \$8,500 per vehicle-year) is expensive and idle; feature-level offloading (S2) is where the VLA cost crossover concentrates. Latency decides which model is admissible in which year; cost decides whether it is economical.