Lance Kaplan

Zhen Guo, Zelin Wan, Qisheng Zhang et al.

An in-depth understanding of uncertainty is the first step to making effective decisions under uncertainty. Deep/machine learning (ML/DL) has been hugely leveraged to solve complex problems involved with processing high-dimensional data. However, reasoning and quantifying different types of uncertainties to achieve effective decision-making have been much less explored in ML/DL than in other Artificial Intelligence (AI) domains. In particular, belief/evidence theories have been studied in KRR since the 1960s to reason and measure uncertainties to enhance decision-making effectiveness. We found that only a few studies have leveraged the mature uncertainty research in belief/evidence theories in ML/DL to tackle complex problems under different types of uncertainty. In this survey paper, we discuss several popular belief theories and their core ideas dealing with uncertainty causes and types and quantifying them, along with the discussions of their applicability in ML/DL. In addition, we discuss three main approaches that leverage belief theories in Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), including Evidential DNNs, Fuzzy DNNs, and Rough DNNs, in terms of their uncertainty causes, types, and quantification methods along with their applicability in diverse problem domains. Based on our in-depth survey, we discuss insights, lessons learned, limitations of the current state-of-the-art bridging belief theories and ML/DL, and finally, future research directions.

Marco Cominelli, Francesco Gringoli, Lance M. Kaplan et al.

Wi-Fi devices can effectively be used as passive radar systems that sense what happens in the surroundings and can even discern human activity. We propose, for the first time, a principled architecture which employs Variational Auto-Encoders for estimating a latent distribution responsible for generating the data, and Evidential Deep Learning for its ability to sense out-of-distribution activities. We verify that the fused data processed by different antennas of the same Wi-Fi receiver results in increased accuracy of human activity recognition compared with the most recent benchmarks, while still being informative when facing out-of-distribution samples and enabling semantic interpretation of latent variables in terms of physical phenomena. The results of this paper are a first contribution toward the ultimate goal of providing a flexible, semantic characterisation of black-swan events, i.e., events for which we have limited to no training data.

Jeya Vikranth Jeyakumar, Luke Dickens, Luis Garcia et al.

Recent efforts in interpretable deep learning models have shown that concept-based explanation methods achieve competitive accuracy with standard end-to-end models and enable reasoning and intervention about extracted high-level visual concepts from images, e.g., identifying the wing color and beak length for bird-species classification. However, these concept bottleneck models rely on a necessary and sufficient set of predefined concepts-which is intractable for complex tasks such as video classification. For complex tasks, the labels and the relationship between visual elements span many frames, e.g., identifying a bird flying or catching prey-necessitating concepts with various levels of abstraction. To this end, we present CoDEx, an automatic Concept Discovery and Extraction module that rigorously composes a necessary and sufficient set of concept abstractions for concept-based video classification. CoDEx identifies a rich set of complex concept abstractions from natural language explanations of videos-obviating the need to predefine the amorphous set of concepts. To demonstrate our method's viability, we construct two new public datasets that combine existing complex video classification datasets with short, crowd-sourced natural language explanations for their labels. Our method elicits inherent complex concept abstractions in natural language to generalize concept-bottleneck methods to complex tasks.

Zhen Guo, Qi Zhang, Xinwei An et al.

Due to various and serious adverse impacts of spreading fake news, it is often known that only people with malicious intent would propagate fake news. However, it is not necessarily true based on social science studies. Distinguishing the types of fake news spreaders based on their intent is critical because it will effectively guide how to intervene to mitigate the spread of fake news with different approaches. To this end, we propose an intent classification framework that can best identify the correct intent of fake news. We will leverage deep reinforcement learning (DRL) that can optimize the structural representation of each tweet by removing noisy words from the input sequence when appending an actor to the long short-term memory (LSTM) intent classifier. Policy gradient DRL model (e.g., REINFORCE) can lead the actor to a higher delayed reward. We also devise a new uncertainty-aware immediate reward using a subjective opinion that can explicitly deal with multidimensional uncertainty for effective decision-making. Via 600K training episodes from a fake news tweets dataset with an annotated intent class, we evaluate the performance of uncertainty-aware reward in DRL. Evaluation results demonstrate that our proposed framework efficiently reduces the number of selected words to maintain a high 95\% multi-class accuracy.

Qisheng Zhang, Zhen Guo, Audun Jøsang et al.

Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) is a highly popular policy-based deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach. However, we observe that the homogeneous exploration process in PPO could cause an unexpected stability issue in the training phase. To address this issue, we propose PPO-UE, a PPO variant equipped with self-adaptive uncertainty-aware explorations (UEs) based on a ratio uncertainty level. The proposed PPO-UE is designed to improve convergence speed and performance with an optimized ratio uncertainty level. Through extensive sensitivity analysis by varying the ratio uncertainty level, our proposed PPO-UE considerably outperforms the baseline PPO in Roboschool continuous control tasks.

Conrad D. Hougen, Lance M. Kaplan, Magdalena Ivanovska et al.

In second-order uncertain Bayesian networks, the conditional probabilities are only known within distributions, i.e., probabilities over probabilities. The delta-method has been applied to extend exact first-order inference methods to propagate both means and variances through sum-product networks derived from Bayesian networks, thereby characterizing epistemic uncertainty, or the uncertainty in the model itself. Alternatively, second-order belief propagation has been demonstrated for polytrees but not for general directed acyclic graph structures. In this work, we extend Loopy Belief Propagation to the setting of second-order Bayesian networks, giving rise to Second-Order Loopy Belief Propagation (SOLBP). For second-order Bayesian networks, SOLBP generates inferences consistent with those generated by sum-product networks, while being more computationally efficient and scalable.

Conrad D. Hougen, Lance M. Kaplan, Federico Cerutti et al.

When the historical data are limited, the conditional probabilities associated with the nodes of Bayesian networks are uncertain and can be empirically estimated. Second order estimation methods provide a framework for both estimating the probabilities and quantifying the uncertainty in these estimates. We refer to these cases as uncer tain or second-order Bayesian networks. When such data are complete, i.e., all variable values are observed for each instantiation, the conditional probabilities are known to be Dirichlet-distributed. This paper improves the current state-of-the-art approaches for handling uncertain Bayesian networks by enabling them to learn distributions for their parameters, i.e., conditional probabilities, with incomplete data. We extensively evaluate various methods to learn the posterior of the parameters through the desired and empirically derived strength of confidence bounds for various queries.

Cai Davies, Marc Roig Vilamala, Alun D. Preece et al.

This work reveals an evidential signal that emerges from the uncertainty value in Evidential Deep Learning (EDL). EDL is one example of a class of uncertainty-aware deep learning approaches designed to provide confidence (or epistemic uncertainty) about the current test sample. In particular for computer vision and bidirectional encoder large language models, the `evidential signal' arising from the Dirichlet strength in EDL can, in some cases, discriminate between classes, which is particularly strong when using large language models. We hypothesise that the KL regularisation term causes EDL to couple aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. In this paper, we empirically investigate the correlations between misclassification and evaluated uncertainty, and show that EDL's `evidential signal' is due to misclassification bias. We critically evaluate EDL with other Dirichlet-based approaches, namely Generative Evidential Neural Networks (EDL-GEN) and Prior Networks, and show theoretically and empirically the differences between these loss functions. We conclude that EDL's coupling of uncertainty arises from these differences due to the use (or lack) of out-of-distribution samples during training.

Alessandro Pagani, Marco Cominelli, Liying Han et al.

This paper presents a preliminary analysis of the ability of Chronos foundation model to process and internally represent frequency domain information. Foundation models that process time-series data offer practitioners a unified architecture capable of learning generic temporal representations across diverse tasks and domains, reducing the need for task-specific feature engineering and enabling transfer across signal modalities. Despite their growing adoption, the extent to which such models encode fundamental signal properties remains insufficiently characterised. We address this gap by analysing Chronos under controlled conditions, starting from the simplest class of signals: discrete sinusoids generated at fixed frequencies. Using lightweight online minimum description length probes applied to the decoder architecture, we test for the presence and separability of frequency information in the model's internal representations. The results provide insight into how frequential content is captured across the frequency spectrum and highlight regimes in which representation quality may degrade or require particular care. These findings offer practical guidance for users of Chronos in signal processing and information fusion contexts, and contribute to ongoing efforts to improve the interpretability and evaluation of foundation models for temporal data.

Luca Cotti, Luca Lavazza, Marco Cominelli et al.

We address Human Activity Recognition (HAR) utilizing Wi-Fi Channel State Information (CSI) under the joint requirements of causal interpretability, symbolic controllability, and direct operation on high-dimensional raw signals. Deep neural models achieve strong predictive performance on CSI-based HAR (CHAR), yet rely on continuous latent representations that are opaque and difficult to modify; purely symbolic approaches, in contrast, cannot process raw CSI streams. We propose a fully automatic and strictly decoupled pipeline in which CSI magnitude windows are compressed by a categorical variational autoencoder with Gumbel-Softmax latent variables under a capacity-controlled objective, yielding a compact discrete representation. The encoder is then frozen and used as a deterministic mapping to one-hot latent trajectories. Causal discovery is performed on these trajectories to estimate class-conditional temporal dependency graphs. Statistically supported lagged dependencies are translated into Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) rules, producing a fully symbolic and deterministic classifier based solely on rule evaluation and aggregation, without any learned discriminative head. Because rules are defined over discrete latent variables, antenna-specific rule sets can in principle be combined at the symbolic level, enabling structured multi-antenna fusion without retraining the encoder. Results from CHAR Latent Temporal Rule Extraction (CHARL-TRE) indicate competitive performance while preserving explicit temporal and causal structure, showing that deterministic symbolic classification grounded in unsupervised discrete latent representations constitutes a viable alternative to end-to-end black-box models for wireless HAR.

Jason Wu, Shir-Kang Scott Jinn, Yuyang Yuan et al.

Multimodal deep neural networks deployed in realistic environments must contend with runtime variations: changes in modality quality, overall input complexity, and available platform resources. Current networks struggle with such fluctuations -- adaptive networks cannot adhere to a strict compute budget, controller-based networks neglect to consider input complexity, and statically provisioned networks fail at all the above. Consequently, they do not extract maximum utility from the expended computational resources. We present SWAN (Sample and World-Aware Multimodal Network), the first adaptive multimodal network that accomplishes all three goals. SWAN employs a quality-aware controller to assign resources among modalities according to a variable user-specified maximum budget. Within this budget, an adaptive gating module further optimizes efficiency by scaling layer utilization according to sample complexity. For further gains, SWAN also employs a token dropping module that masks semantically irrelevant multimodal features before performing detections. We evaluate SWAN in the domain of autonomous driving with complex multi-object 3D detection, reducing FLOPs by up to 49% with minimal degradation.

Marco Cominelli, Francesco Gringoli, Lance M. Kaplan et al.

Wi-Fi devices, akin to passive radars, can discern human activities within indoor settings due to the human body's interaction with electromagnetic signals. Current Wi-Fi sensing applications predominantly employ data-driven learning techniques to associate the fluctuations in the physical properties of the communication channel with the human activity causing them. However, these techniques often lack the desired flexibility and transparency. This paper introduces DeepProbHAR, a neuro-symbolic architecture for Wi-Fi sensing, providing initial evidence that Wi-Fi signals can differentiate between simple movements, such as leg or arm movements, which are integral to human activities like running or walking. The neuro-symbolic approach affords gathering such evidence without needing additional specialised data collection or labelling. The training of DeepProbHAR is facilitated by declarative domain knowledge obtained from a camera feed and by fusing signals from various antennas of the Wi-Fi receivers. DeepProbHAR achieves results comparable to the state-of-the-art in human activity recognition. Moreover, as a by-product of the learning process, DeepProbHAR generates specialised classifiers for simple movements that match the accuracy of models trained on finely labelled datasets, which would be particularly costly.

Pietro Baroni, Federico Cerutti, Massimiliano Giacomin et al.

The sixth assessment of the international panel on climate change (IPCC) states that "cumulative net CO2 emissions over the last decade (2010-2019) are about the same size as the 11 remaining carbon budget likely to limit warming to 1.5C (medium confidence)." Such reports directly feed the public discourse, but nuances such as the degree of belief and of confidence are often lost. In this paper, we propose a formal account for allowing such degrees of belief and the associated confidence to be used to label arguments in abstract argumentation settings. Differently from other proposals in probabilistic argumentation, we focus on the task of probabilistic inference over a chosen query building upon Sato's distribution semantics which has been already shown to encompass a variety of cases including the semantics of Bayesian networks. Borrowing from the vast literature on such semantics, we examine how such tasks can be dealt with in practice when considering uncertain probabilities, and discuss the connections with existing proposals for probabilistic argumentation.

Changbin Li, Kangshuo Li, Yuzhe Ou et al.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been shown to perform well on exclusive, multi-class classification tasks. However, when different classes have similar visual features, it becomes challenging for human annotators to differentiate them. This scenario necessitates the use of composite class labels. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called Hyper-Evidential Neural Network (HENN) that explicitly models predictive uncertainty due to composite class labels in training data in the context of the belief theory called Subjective Logic (SL). By placing a grouped Dirichlet distribution on the class probabilities, we treat predictions of a neural network as parameters of hyper-subjective opinions and learn the network that collects both single and composite evidence leading to these hyper-opinions by a deterministic DNN from data. We introduce a new uncertainty type called vagueness originally designed for hyper-opinions in SL to quantify composite classification uncertainty for DNNs. Our results demonstrate that HENN outperforms its state-of-the-art counterparts based on four image datasets. The code and datasets are available at: https://github.com/Hugo101/HyperEvidentialNN.

Ho Lyun Jeong, Ziqi Wang, Colin Samplawski et al.

Constantly locating moving objects, i.e., geospatial tracking, is essential for autonomous building infrastructure. Accurate and robust geospatial tracking often leverages multimodal sensor fusion algorithms, which require large datasets with time-aligned, synchronized data from various sensor types. However, such datasets are not readily available. Hence, we propose GDTM, a nine-hour dataset for multimodal object tracking with distributed multimodal sensors and reconfigurable sensor node placements. Our dataset enables the exploration of several research problems, such as optimizing architectures for processing multimodal data, and investigating models' robustness to adverse sensing conditions and sensor placement variances. A GitHub repository containing the code, sample data, and checkpoints of this work is available at https://github.com/nesl/GDTM.

Jason Wu, Ziqi Wang, Xiaomin Ouyang et al.

Localization is a critical technology for various applications ranging from navigation and surveillance to assisted living. Localization systems typically fuse information from sensors viewing the scene from different perspectives to estimate the target location while also employing multiple modalities for enhanced robustness and accuracy. Recently, such systems have employed end-to-end deep neural models trained on large datasets due to their superior performance and ability to handle data from diverse sensor modalities. However, such neural models are often trained on data collected from a particular set of sensor poses (i.e., locations and orientations). During real-world deployments, slight deviations from these sensor poses can result in extreme inaccuracies. To address this challenge, we introduce FlexLoc, which employs conditional neural networks to inject node perspective information to adapt the localization pipeline. Specifically, a small subset of model weights are derived from node poses at run time, enabling accurate generalization to unseen perspectives with minimal additional overhead. Our evaluations on a multimodal, multiview indoor tracking dataset showcase that FlexLoc improves the localization accuracy by almost 50% in the zero-shot case (no calibration data available) compared to the baselines. The source code of FlexLoc is available at https://github.com/nesl/FlexLoc.

Tian Ye, Rajgopal Kannan, Viktor Prasanna et al.

Adversarial attacks have highlighted the vulnerability of classifiers based on machine learning for Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Automatic Target Recognition (ATR) tasks. An adversarial attack perturbs SAR images of on-ground targets such that the classifiers are misled into making incorrect predictions. However, many existing attacking techniques rely on arbitrary manipulation of SAR images while overlooking the feasibility of executing the attacks on real-world SAR imagery. Instead, adversarial attacks should be able to be implemented by physical actions, for example, placing additional false objects as scatterers around the on-ground target to perturb the SAR image and fool the SAR ATR. In this paper, we propose the On-Target Scatterer Attack (OTSA), a scatterer-based physical adversarial attack. To ensure the feasibility of its physical execution, we enforce a constraint on the positioning of the scatterers. Specifically, we restrict the scatterers to be placed only on the target instead of in the shadow regions or the background. To achieve this, we introduce a positioning score based on Gaussian kernels and formulate an optimization problem for our OTSA attack. Using a gradient ascent method to solve the optimization problem, the OTSA can generate a vector of parameters describing the positions, shapes, sizes and amplitudes of the scatterers to guide the physical execution of the attack that will mislead SAR image classifiers. The experimental results show that our attack obtains significantly higher success rates under the positioning constraint compared with the existing method.

Liying Han, Gaofeng Dong, Xiaomin Ouyang et al.

Complex events (CEs) play a crucial role in CPS-IoT applications, enabling high-level decision-making in domains such as smart monitoring and autonomous systems. However, most existing models focus on short-span perception tasks, lacking the long-term reasoning required for CE detection. CEs consist of sequences of short-time atomic events (AEs) governed by spatiotemporal dependencies. Detecting them is difficult due to long, noisy sensor data and the challenge of filtering out irrelevant AEs while capturing meaningful patterns. This work explores CE detection as a case study for CPS-IoT foundation models capable of long-term reasoning. We evaluate three approaches: (1) leveraging large language models (LLMs), (2) employing various neural architectures that learn CE rules from data, and (3) adopting a neurosymbolic approach that integrates neural models with symbolic engines embedding human knowledge. Our results show that the state-space model, Mamba, which belongs to the second category, outperforms all methods in accuracy and generalization to longer, unseen sensor traces. These findings suggest that state-space models could be a strong backbone for CPS-IoT foundation models for long-span reasoning tasks.

Murat Sensoy, Lance M. Kaplan, Simon Julier et al.

Autonomous and semi-autonomous systems are using deep learning models to improve decision-making. However, deep classifiers can be overly confident in their incorrect predictions, a major issue especially in safety-critical domains. The present study introduces three foundational desiderata for developing real-world risk-aware classification systems. Expanding upon the previously proposed Evidential Deep Learning (EDL), we demonstrate the unity between these principles and EDL's operational attributes. We then augment EDL empowering autonomous agents to exercise discretion during structured decision-making when uncertainty and risks are inherent. We rigorously examine empirical scenarios to substantiate these theoretical innovations. In contrast to existing risk-aware classifiers, our proposed methodologies consistently exhibit superior performance, underscoring their transformative potential in risk-conscious classification strategies.

Alessandro Gaudenzi, Lorenzo Nodari, Lance Kaplan et al.

Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs) represent a significant challenge in cybersecurity due to their prolonged, multi-stage nature and the sophistication of their operators. Traditional detection systems typically focus on identifying malicious activity in binary terms (benign or malicious) without accounting for the progression of an attack. However, effective response strategies depend on accurate inference of the attack's current stage, as countermeasures must be tailored to whether an adversary is in the early reconnaissance phase or actively conducting exploitation or exfiltration. This work addresses the problem of attack stage inference under uncertainty, with a focus on robustness to out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. We propose a classification approach based on Evidential Deep Learning (EDL), which models predictive uncertainty by outputting parameters of a Dirichlet distribution over possible stages. This allows the system not only to predict the most likely stage of an attack but also to indicate when it is uncertain or the input lies outside the training distribution. Preliminary experiments in a simulated environment demonstrate that the proposed model can accurately infer the stage of an attack with calibrated confidence while effectively detecting OOD inputs, which may indicate changes in the attackers' tactics. These results support the feasibility of deploying uncertainty-aware models for staged threat detection in dynamic and adversarial environments.

Jason Wu, Yuyang Yuan, Kang Yang et al.

Multimodal deep learning systems are deployed in dynamic scenarios due to the robustness afforded by multiple sensing modalities. Nevertheless, they struggle with varying compute resource availability (due to multi-tenancy, device heterogeneity, etc.) and fluctuating quality of inputs (from sensor feed corruption, environmental noise, etc.). Statically provisioned multimodal systems cannot adapt when compute resources change over time, while existing dynamic networks struggle with strict compute budgets. Additionally, both systems often neglect the impact of variations in modality quality. Consequently, modalities suffering substantial corruption may needlessly consume resources better allocated towards other modalities. We propose ADMN, a layer-wise Adaptive Depth Multimodal Network capable of tackling both challenges: it adjusts the total number of active layers across all modalities to meet strict compute resource constraints and continually reallocates layers across input modalities according to their modality quality. Our evaluations showcase ADMN can match the accuracy of state-of-the-art networks while reducing up to 75% of their floating-point operations.

Liying Han, Gaofeng Dong, Xiaomin Ouyang et al.

Modern machine learning models excel at detecting individual actions, objects, or scene attributes from short, local observations. However, many real-world tasks, such as in smart cities and healthcare, require reasoning over complex events (CEs): (spatio)temporal, rule-governed patterns of short-term atomic events (AEs) that reflect high-level understanding and critical changes in the environment. These CEs are difficult to detect online: they are often rare, require long-range reasoning over noisy sensor data, must generalize rules beyond fixed-length traces, and suffer from limited real-world datasets due to the high annotation burden. We propose NAROCE, a Neural Algorithmic Reasoning framework for Online CE detection that separates the task into two stages: (i) learning CE rules from large-scale, low-cost pseudo AE concept traces generated by simulators or LLMs, and (ii) training an adapter to map real sensor data into the learned reasoning space using fewer labeled sensor samples. Experiments show that NAROCE outperforms the strongest baseline in accuracy, generalization to longer, unseen sequences, and data efficiency, achieving comparable performance with less than half the labeled data. These results suggest that decoupling CE rule learning from raw sensor inputs improves both data efficiency and robustness.

Marc Roig Vilamala, Tianwei Xing, Harrison Taylor et al.

In this paper, we present an approach to Complex Event Processing (CEP) that is based on DeepProbLog. This approach has the following objectives: (i) allowing the use of subsymbolic data as an input, (ii) retaining the flexibility and modularity on the definitions of complex event rules, (iii) allowing the system to be trained in an end-to-end manner and (iv) being robust against noisily labelled data. Our approach makes use of DeepProbLog to create a neuro-symbolic architecture that combines a neural network to process the subsymbolic data with a probabilistic logic layer to allow the user to define the rules for the complex events. We demonstrate that our approach is capable of detecting complex events from an audio stream. We also demonstrate that our approach is capable of training even with a dataset that has a moderate proportion of noisy data.

Federico Cerutti, Lance M. Kaplan, Angelika Kimmig et al.

When collaborating with an AI system, we need to assess when to trust its recommendations. If we mistakenly trust it in regions where it is likely to err, catastrophic failures may occur, hence the need for Bayesian approaches for probabilistic reasoning in order to determine the confidence (or epistemic uncertainty) in the probabilities in light of the training data. We propose an approach to overcome the independence assumption behind most of the approaches dealing with a large class of probabilistic reasoning that includes Bayesian networks as well as several instances of probabilistic logic. We provide an algorithm for Bayesian learning from sparse, albeit complete, observations, and for deriving inferences and their confidences keeping track of the dependencies between variables when they are manipulated within the unifying computational formalism provided by probabilistic circuits. Each leaf of such circuits is labelled with a beta-distributed random variable that provides us with an elegant framework for representing uncertain probabilities. We achieve better estimation of epistemic uncertainty than state-of-the-art approaches, including highly engineered ones, while being able to handle general circuits and with just a modest increase in the computational effort compared to using point probabilities.

Daniel Cunnington, Alessandra Russo, Mark Law et al.

Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) systems learn generalised, interpretable rules in a data-efficient manner utilising existing background knowledge. However, current ILP systems require training examples to be specified in a structured logical format. Neural networks learn from unstructured data, although their learned models may be difficult to interpret and are vulnerable to data perturbations at run-time. This paper introduces a hybrid neural-symbolic learning framework, called NSL, that learns interpretable rules from labelled unstructured data. NSL combines pre-trained neural networks for feature extraction with FastLAS, a state-of-the-art ILP system for rule learning under the answer set semantics. Features extracted by the neural components define the structured context of labelled examples and the confidence of the neural predictions determines the level of noise of the examples. Using the scoring function of FastLAS, NSL searches for short, interpretable rules that generalise over such noisy examples. We evaluate our framework on propositional and first-order classification tasks using the MNIST dataset as raw data. Specifically, we demonstrate that NSL is able to learn robust rules from perturbed MNIST data and achieve comparable or superior accuracy when compared to neural network and random forest baselines whilst being more general and interpretable.

James Z. Hare, Cesar A. Uribe, Lance Kaplan et al.

This paper studies the problem of distributed classification with a network of heterogeneous agents. The agents seek to jointly identify the underlying target class that best describes a sequence of observations. The problem is first abstracted to a hypothesis-testing framework, where we assume that the agents seek to agree on the hypothesis (target class) that best matches the distribution of observations. Non-Bayesian social learning theory provides a framework that solves this problem in an efficient manner by allowing the agents to sequentially communicate and update their beliefs for each hypothesis over the network. Most existing approaches assume that agents have access to exact statistical models for each hypothesis. However, in many practical applications, agents learn the likelihood models based on limited data, which induces uncertainty in the likelihood function parameters. In this work, we build upon the concept of uncertain models to incorporate the agents' uncertainty in the likelihoods by identifying a broad set of parametric distribution that allows the agents' beliefs to converge to the same result as a centralized approach. Furthermore, we empirically explore extensions to non-parametric models to provide a generalized framework of uncertain models in non-Bayesian social learning.

Marc Roig Vilamala, Harrison Taylor, Tianwei Xing et al.

Training a model to detect patterns of interrelated events that form situations of interest can be a complex problem: such situations tend to be uncommon, and only sparse data is available. We propose a hybrid neuro-symbolic architecture based on Event Calculus that can perform Complex Event Processing (CEP). It leverages both a neural network to interpret inputs and logical rules that express the pattern of the complex event. Our approach is capable of training with much fewer labelled data than a pure neural network approach, and to learn to classify individual events even when training in an end-to-end manner. We demonstrate this comparing our approach against a pure neural network approach on a dataset based on Urban Sounds 8K.

Murat Sensoy, Lance Kaplan, Federico Cerutti et al.

Deep neural networks are often ignorant about what they do not know and overconfident when they make uninformed predictions. Some recent approaches quantify classification uncertainty directly by training the model to output high uncertainty for the data samples close to class boundaries or from the outside of the training distribution. These approaches use an auxiliary data set during training to represent out-of-distribution samples. However, selection or creation of such an auxiliary data set is non-trivial, especially for high dimensional data such as images. In this work we develop a novel neural network model that is able to express both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty to distinguish decision boundary and out-of-distribution regions of the feature space. To this end, variational autoencoders and generative adversarial networks are incorporated to automatically generate out-of-distribution exemplars for training. Through extensive analysis, we demonstrate that the proposed approach provides better estimates of uncertainty for in- and out-of-distribution samples, and adversarial examples on well-known data sets against state-of-the-art approaches including recent Bayesian approaches for neural networks and anomaly detection methods.

Yu Meng, Jiaxin Huang, Guangyuan Wang et al.

Unsupervised text embedding has shown great power in a wide range of NLP tasks. While text embeddings are typically learned in the Euclidean space, directional similarity is often more effective in tasks such as word similarity and document clustering, which creates a gap between the training stage and usage stage of text embedding. To close this gap, we propose a spherical generative model based on which unsupervised word and paragraph embeddings are jointly learned. To learn text embeddings in the spherical space, we develop an efficient optimization algorithm with convergence guarantee based on Riemannian optimization. Our model enjoys high efficiency and achieves state-of-the-art performances on various text embedding tasks including word similarity and document clustering.

Xujiang Zhao, Yuzhe Ou, Lance Kaplan et al.

Traditional deep neural nets (NNs) have shown the state-of-the-art performance in the task of classification in various applications. However, NNs have not considered any types of uncertainty associated with the class probabilities to minimize risk due to misclassification under uncertainty in real life. Unlike Bayesian neural nets indirectly infering uncertainty through weight uncertainties, evidential neural networks (ENNs) have been recently proposed to support explicit modeling of the uncertainty of class probabilities. It treats predictions of an NN as subjective opinions and learns the function by collecting the evidence leading to these opinions by a deterministic NN from data. However, an ENN is trained as a black box without explicitly considering different types of inherent data uncertainty, such as vacuity (uncertainty due to a lack of evidence) or dissonance (uncertainty due to conflicting evidence). This paper presents a new approach, called a {\em regularized ENN}, that learns an ENN based on regularizations related to different characteristics of inherent data uncertainty. Via the experiments with both synthetic and real-world datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed regularized ENN can better learn of an ENN modeling different types of uncertainty in the class probabilities for classification tasks.

James Z. Hare, Cesar A. Uribe, Lance Kaplan et al.

Non-Bayesian social learning theory provides a framework that models distributed inference for a group of agents interacting over a social network. In this framework, each agent iteratively forms and communicates beliefs about an unknown state of the world with their neighbors using a learning rule. Existing approaches assume agents have access to precise statistical models (in the form of likelihoods) for the state of the world. However in many situations, such models must be learned from finite data. We propose a social learning rule that takes into account uncertainty in the statistical models using second-order probabilities. Therefore, beliefs derived from uncertain models are sensitive to the amount of past evidence collected for each hypothesis. We characterize how well the hypotheses can be tested on a social network, as consistent or not with the state of the world. We explicitly show the dependency of the generated beliefs with respect to the amount of prior evidence. Moreover, as the amount of prior evidence goes to infinity, learning occurs and is consistent with traditional social learning theory.

Lakmal Meegahapola, Vengateswaran Subramaniam, Lance Kaplan et al.

In this paper, we introduce the concept of Prior Activation Distribution (PAD) as a versatile and general technique to capture the typical activation patterns of hidden layer units of a Deep Neural Network used for classification tasks. We show that the combined neural activations of such a hidden layer have class-specific distributional properties, and then define multiple statistical measures to compute how far a test sample's activations deviate from such distributions. Using a variety of benchmark datasets (including MNIST, CIFAR10, Fashion-MNIST & notMNIST), we show how such PAD-based measures can be used, independent of any training technique, to (a) derive fine-grained uncertainty estimates for inferences; (b) provide inferencing accuracy competitive with alternatives that require execution of the full pipeline, and (c) reliably isolate out-of-distribution test samples.

Federico Cerutti, Lance Kaplan, Angelika Kimmig et al.

We enable aProbLog---a probabilistic logical programming approach---to reason in presence of uncertain probabilities represented as Beta-distributed random variables. We achieve the same performance of state-of-the-art algorithms for highly specified and engineered domains, while simultaneously we maintain the flexibility offered by aProbLog in handling complex relational domains. Our motivation is that faithfully capturing the distribution of probabilities is necessary to compute an expected utility for effective decision making under uncertainty: unfortunately, these probability distributions can be highly uncertain due to sparse data. To understand and accurately manipulate such probability distributions we need a well-defined theoretical framework that is provided by the Beta distribution, which specifies a distribution of probabilities representing all the possible values of a probability when the exact value is unknown.

Lance Kaplan, Federico Cerutti, Murat Sensoy et al.

This paper argues the need for research to realize uncertainty-aware artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI\&ML) systems for decision support by describing a number of motivating scenarios. Furthermore, the paper defines uncertainty-awareness and lays out the challenges along with surveying some promising research directions. A theoretical demonstration illustrates how two emerging uncertainty-aware ML and AI technologies could be integrated and be of value for a route planning operation.

Murat Sensoy, Lance Kaplan, Melih Kandemir

Deterministic neural nets have been shown to learn effective predictors on a wide range of machine learning problems. However, as the standard approach is to train the network to minimize a prediction loss, the resultant model remains ignorant to its prediction confidence. Orthogonally to Bayesian neural nets that indirectly infer prediction uncertainty through weight uncertainties, we propose explicit modeling of the same using the theory of subjective logic. By placing a Dirichlet distribution on the class probabilities, we treat predictions of a neural net as subjective opinions and learn the function that collects the evidence leading to these opinions by a deterministic neural net from data. The resultant predictor for a multi-class classification problem is another Dirichlet distribution whose parameters are set by the continuous output of a neural net. We provide a preliminary analysis on how the peculiarities of our new loss function drive improved uncertainty estimation. We observe that our method achieves unprecedented success on detection of out-of-distribution queries and endurance against adversarial perturbations.

Yu Shi, Huan Gui, Qi Zhu et al.

Heterogeneous information networks (HINs) are ubiquitous in real-world applications. Due to the heterogeneity in HINs, the typed edges may not fully align with each other. In order to capture the semantic subtlety, we propose the concept of aspects with each aspect being a unit representing one underlying semantic facet. Meanwhile, network embedding has emerged as a powerful method for learning network representation, where the learned embedding can be used as features in various downstream applications. Therefore, we are motivated to propose a novel embedding learning framework---AspEm---to preserve the semantic information in HINs based on multiple aspects. Instead of preserving information of the network in one semantic space, AspEm encapsulates information regarding each aspect individually. In order to select aspects for embedding purpose, we further devise a solution for AspEm based on dataset-wide statistics. To corroborate the efficacy of AspEm, we conducted experiments on two real-words datasets with two types of applications---classification and link prediction. Experiment results demonstrate that AspEm can outperform baseline network embedding learning methods by considering multiple aspects, where the aspects can be selected from the given HIN in an unsupervised manner.

Meng Jiang, Jingbo Shang, Taylor Cassidy et al.

Mining textual patterns in news, tweets, papers, and many other kinds of text corpora has been an active theme in text mining and NLP research. Previous studies adopt a dependency parsing-based pattern discovery approach. However, the parsing results lose rich context around entities in the patterns, and the process is costly for a corpus of large scale. In this study, we propose a novel typed textual pattern structure, called meta pattern, which is extended to a frequent, informative, and precise subsequence pattern in certain context. We propose an efficient framework, called MetaPAD, which discovers meta patterns from massive corpora with three techniques: (1) it develops a context-aware segmentation method to carefully determine the boundaries of patterns with a learnt pattern quality assessment function, which avoids costly dependency parsing and generates high-quality patterns; (2) it identifies and groups synonymous meta patterns from multiple facets---their types, contexts, and extractions; and (3) it examines type distributions of entities in the instances extracted by each group of patterns, and looks for appropriate type levels to make discovered patterns precise. Experiments demonstrate that our proposed framework discovers high-quality typed textual patterns efficiently from different genres of massive corpora and facilitates information extraction.

Jingbo Shang, Meng Qu, Jialu Liu et al.

Most real-world data can be modeled as heterogeneous information networks (HINs) consisting of vertices of multiple types and their relationships. Search for similar vertices of the same type in large HINs, such as bibliographic networks and business-review networks, is a fundamental problem with broad applications. Although similarity search in HINs has been studied previously, most existing approaches neither explore rich semantic information embedded in the network structures nor take user's preference as a guidance. In this paper, we re-examine similarity search in HINs and propose a novel embedding-based framework. It models vertices as low-dimensional vectors to explore network structure-embedded similarity. To accommodate user preferences at defining similarity semantics, our proposed framework, ESim, accepts user-defined meta-paths as guidance to learn vertex vectors in a user-preferred embedding space. Moreover, an efficient and parallel sampling-based optimization algorithm has been developed to learn embeddings in large-scale HINs. Extensive experiments on real-world large-scale HINs demonstrate a significant improvement on the effectiveness of ESim over several state-of-the-art algorithms as well as its scalability.

Jiangfan Zhang, Rick S. Blum, Lance Kaplan et al.

Estimation of an unknown deterministic vector from quantized sensor data is considered in the presence of spoofing attacks which alter the data presented to several sensors. Contrary to previous work, a generalized attack model is employed which manipulates the data using transformations with arbitrary functional forms determined by some attack parameters whose values are unknown to the attacked system. For the first time, necessary and sufficient conditions are provided under which the transformations provide a guaranteed attack performance in terms of Cramer-Rao Bound (CRB) regardless of the processing the estimation system employs, thus defining a highly desirable attack. Interestingly, these conditions imply that, for any such attack when the attacked sensors can be perfectly identified by the estimation system, either the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) for jointly estimating the desired and attack parameters is singular or that the attacked system is unable to improve the CRB for the desired vector parameter through this joint estimation even though the joint FIM is nonsingular. It is shown that it is always possible to construct such a highly desirable attack by properly employing a sufficiently large dimension attack vector parameter relative to the number of quantization levels employed, which was not observed previously. To illustrate the theory in a concrete way, we also provide some numerical results which corroborate that under the highly desirable attack, attacked data is not useful in reducing the CRB.