A Survey on Uncertainty Reasoning and Quantification for Decision Making: Belief Theory Meets Deep Learning
It addresses the problem of improving decision-making under uncertainty for AI researchers by bridging belief theories and deep learning, but it is incremental as it surveys existing work rather than proposing new methods.
This survey paper examines the integration of belief/evidence theories with deep learning to address uncertainty reasoning and quantification for decision-making, highlighting that few studies have applied these mature theories to ML/DL and discussing approaches like Evidential, Fuzzy, and Rough DNNs.
An in-depth understanding of uncertainty is the first step to making effective decisions under uncertainty. Deep/machine learning (ML/DL) has been hugely leveraged to solve complex problems involved with processing high-dimensional data. However, reasoning and quantifying different types of uncertainties to achieve effective decision-making have been much less explored in ML/DL than in other Artificial Intelligence (AI) domains. In particular, belief/evidence theories have been studied in KRR since the 1960s to reason and measure uncertainties to enhance decision-making effectiveness. We found that only a few studies have leveraged the mature uncertainty research in belief/evidence theories in ML/DL to tackle complex problems under different types of uncertainty. In this survey paper, we discuss several popular belief theories and their core ideas dealing with uncertainty causes and types and quantifying them, along with the discussions of their applicability in ML/DL. In addition, we discuss three main approaches that leverage belief theories in Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), including Evidential DNNs, Fuzzy DNNs, and Rough DNNs, in terms of their uncertainty causes, types, and quantification methods along with their applicability in diverse problem domains. Based on our in-depth survey, we discuss insights, lessons learned, limitations of the current state-of-the-art bridging belief theories and ML/DL, and finally, future research directions.