Kit T. Rodolfa

Kasun Amarasinghe, Kit T. Rodolfa, Sérgio Jesus et al. · cmu

Most existing evaluations of explainable machine learning (ML) methods rely on simplifying assumptions or proxies that do not reflect real-world use cases; the handful of more robust evaluations on real-world settings have shortcomings in their design, resulting in limited conclusions of methods' real-world utility. In this work, we seek to bridge this gap by conducting a study that evaluates three popular explainable ML methods in a setting consistent with the intended deployment context. We build on a previous study on e-commerce fraud detection and make crucial modifications to its setup relaxing the simplifying assumptions made in the original work that departed from the deployment context. In doing so, we draw drastically different conclusions from the earlier work and find no evidence for the incremental utility of the tested methods in the task. Our results highlight how seemingly trivial experimental design choices can yield misleading conclusions, with lessons about the necessity of not only evaluating explainable ML methods using tasks, data, users, and metrics grounded in the intended deployment contexts but also developing methods tailored to specific applications. In addition, we believe the design of this experiment can serve as a template for future study designs evaluating explainable ML methods in other real-world contexts.

Emily Black, Rakshit Naidu, Rayid Ghani et al.

While algorithmic fairness is a thriving area of research, in practice, mitigating issues of bias often gets reduced to enforcing an arbitrarily chosen fairness metric, either by enforcing fairness constraints during the optimization step, post-processing model outputs, or by manipulating the training data. Recent work has called on the ML community to take a more holistic approach to tackle fairness issues by systematically investigating the many design choices made through the ML pipeline, and identifying interventions that target the issue's root cause, as opposed to its symptoms. While we share the conviction that this pipeline-based approach is the most appropriate for combating algorithmic unfairness on the ground, we believe there are currently very few methods of \emph{operationalizing} this approach in practice. Drawing on our experience as educators and practitioners, we first demonstrate that without clear guidelines and toolkits, even individuals with specialized ML knowledge find it challenging to hypothesize how various design choices influence model behavior. We then consult the fair-ML literature to understand the progress to date toward operationalizing the pipeline-aware approach: we systematically collect and organize the prior work that attempts to detect, measure, and mitigate various sources of unfairness through the ML pipeline. We utilize this extensive categorization of previous contributions to sketch a research agenda for the community. We hope this work serves as the stepping stone toward a more comprehensive set of resources for ML researchers, practitioners, and students interested in exploring, designing, and testing pipeline-oriented approaches to algorithmic fairness.

Ka Ho Brian Chor, Kit T. Rodolfa, Rayid Ghani

Human services systems make key decisions that impact individuals in the society. The U.S. child welfare system makes such decisions, from screening-in hotline reports of suspected abuse or neglect for child protective investigations, placing children in foster care, to returning children to permanent home settings. These complex and impactful decisions on children's lives rely on the judgment of child welfare decisionmakers. Child welfare agencies have been exploring ways to support these decisions with empirical, data-informed methods that include machine learning (ML). This paper describes a conceptual framework for ML to support child welfare decisions. The ML framework guides how child welfare agencies might conceptualize a target problem that ML can solve; vet available administrative data for building ML; formulate and develop ML specifications that mirror relevant populations and interventions the agencies are undertaking; deploy, evaluate, and monitor ML as child welfare context, policy, and practice change over time. Ethical considerations, stakeholder engagement, and avoidance of common pitfalls underpin the framework's impact and success. From abstract to concrete, we describe one application of this framework to support a child welfare decision. This ML framework, though child welfare-focused, is generalizable to solving other public policy problems.

Kit T. Rodolfa, Erika Salomon, Jin Yao et al.

Many incarcerated individuals face significant and complex challenges, including mental illness, substance dependence, and homelessness, yet jails and prisons are often poorly equipped to address these needs. With little support from the existing criminal justice system, these needs can remain untreated and worsen, often leading to further offenses and a cycle of incarceration with adverse outcomes both for the individual and for public safety, with particularly large impacts on communities of color that continue to widen the already extensive racial disparities in criminal justice outcomes. Responding to these failures, a growing number of criminal justice stakeholders are seeking to break this cycle through innovative approaches such as community-driven and alternative approaches to policing, mentoring, community building, restorative justice, pretrial diversion, holistic defense, and social service connections. Here we report on a collaboration between Johnson County, Kansas, and Carnegie Mellon University to perform targeted, proactive mental health outreach in an effort to reduce reincarceration rates. This paper describes the data used, our predictive modeling approach and results, as well as the design and analysis of a field trial conducted to confirm our model's predictive power, evaluate the impact of this targeted outreach, and understand at what level of reincarceration risk outreach might be most effective. Through this trial, we find that our model is highly predictive of new jail bookings, with more than half of individuals in the trial's highest-risk group returning to jail in the following year. Outreach was most effective among these highest-risk individuals, with impacts on mental health utilization, EMS dispatches, and criminal justice involvement.

Sebastian Quaade, Andrea Vallebueno, Olivia D. N. Alcabes et al.

Aquaculture production -- the cultivation of aquatic plants and animals -- has grown rapidly since the 1990s, but sparse, self-reported and aggregate production data limits the effective understanding and monitoring of the industry's trends and potential risks. Building on a manual survey of aquaculture production from remote sensing imagery, we train a computer vision model to identify marine aquaculture cages from aerial and satellite imagery, and generate a spatially explicit dataset of finfish production locations in the French Mediterranean from 2000-2021 that includes 4,010 cages (69m2 average cage area). We demonstrate the value of our method as an easily adaptable, cost-effective approach that can improve the speed and reliability of aquaculture surveys, and enables downstream analyses relevant to researchers and regulators. We illustrate its use to compute independent estimates of production, and develop a flexible framework to quantify uncertainty in these estimates. Overall, our study presents an efficient, scalable and highly adaptable method for monitoring aquaculture production from remote sensing imagery.

Catalina Vajiac, Arun Frey, Joachim Baumann et al.

Rental assistance programs provide individuals with financial assistance to prevent housing instabilities caused by evictions and avert homelessness. Since these programs operate under resource constraints, they must decide who to prioritize. Typically, funding is distributed by a reactive or first-come-first serve allocation process that does not systematically consider risk of future homelessness. We partnered with Allegheny County, PA to explore a proactive allocation approach that prioritizes individuals facing eviction based on their risk of future homelessness. Our ML system that uses state and county administrative data to accurately identify individuals in need of support outperforms simpler prioritization approaches by at least 20% while being fair and equitable across race and gender. Furthermore, our approach would identify 28% of individuals who are overlooked by the current process and end up homeless. Beyond improvements to the rental assistance program in Allegheny County, this study can inform the development of evidence-based decision support tools in similar contexts, including lessons about data needs, model design, evaluation, and field validation.

Hemank Lamba, Kit T. Rodolfa, Rayid Ghani

Applications of machine learning (ML) to high-stakes policy settings -- such as education, criminal justice, healthcare, and social service delivery -- have grown rapidly in recent years, sparking important conversations about how to ensure fair outcomes from these systems. The machine learning research community has responded to this challenge with a wide array of proposed fairness-enhancing strategies for ML models, but despite the large number of methods that have been developed, little empirical work exists evaluating these methods in real-world settings. Here, we seek to fill this research gap by investigating the performance of several methods that operate at different points in the ML pipeline across four real-world public policy and social good problems. Across these problems, we find a wide degree of variability and inconsistency in the ability of many of these methods to improve model fairness, but post-processing by choosing group-specific score thresholds consistently removes disparities, with important implications for both the ML research community and practitioners deploying machine learning to inform consequential policy decisions.

Kit T. Rodolfa, Hemank Lamba, Rayid Ghani

Growing use of machine learning in policy and social impact settings have raised concerns for fairness implications, especially for racial minorities. These concerns have generated considerable interest among machine learning and artificial intelligence researchers, who have developed new methods and established theoretical bounds for improving fairness, focusing on the source data, regularization and model training, or post-hoc adjustments to model scores. However, little work has studied the practical trade-offs between fairness and accuracy in real-world settings to understand how these bounds and methods translate into policy choices and impact on society. Our empirical study fills this gap by investigating the impact of mitigating disparities on accuracy, focusing on the common context of using machine learning to inform benefit allocation in resource-constrained programs across education, mental health, criminal justice, and housing safety. Here we describe applied work in which we find fairness-accuracy trade-offs to be negligible in practice. In each setting studied, explicitly focusing on achieving equity and using our proposed post-hoc disparity mitigation methods, fairness was substantially improved without sacrificing accuracy. This observation was robust across policy contexts studied, scale of resources available for intervention, time, and relative size of the protected groups. These empirical results challenge a commonly held assumption that reducing disparities either requires accepting an appreciable drop in accuracy or the development of novel, complex methods, making reducing disparities in these applications more practical.

Kasun Amarasinghe, Kit Rodolfa, Hemank Lamba et al.

Explainability is highly-desired in Machine Learning (ML) systems supporting high-stakes policy decisions in areas such as health, criminal justice, education, and employment. While the field of explainable ML has expanded in recent years, much of this work has not taken real-world needs into account. A majority of proposed methods are designed with \textit{generic} explainability goals without well-defined use-cases or intended end-users and evaluated on simplified tasks, benchmark problems/datasets, or with proxy users (e.g., AMT). We argue that these simplified evaluation settings do not capture the nuances and complexities of real-world applications. As a result, the applicability and effectiveness of this large body of theoretical and methodological work in real-world applications are unclear. In this work, we take steps toward addressing this gap for the domain of public policy. First, we identify the primary use-cases of explainable ML within public policy problems. For each use case, we define the end-users of explanations and the specific goals the explanations have to fulfill. Finally, we map existing work in explainable ML to these use-cases, identify gaps in established capabilities, and propose research directions to fill those gaps to have a practical societal impact through ML. The contribution is 1) a methodology for explainable ML researchers to identify use cases and develop methods targeted at them and 2) using that methodology for the domain of public policy and giving an example for the researchers on developing explainable ML methods that result in real-world impact.