Antonio Rago

Junqi Jiang, Francesco Leofante, Antonio Rago et al.

The use of counterfactual explanations (CFXs) is an increasingly popular explanation strategy for machine learning models. However, recent studies have shown that these explanations may not be robust to changes in the underlying model (e.g., following retraining), which raises questions about their reliability in real-world applications. Existing attempts towards solving this problem are heuristic, and the robustness to model changes of the resulting CFXs is evaluated with only a small number of retrained models, failing to provide exhaustive guarantees. To remedy this, we propose Δ-robustness, the first notion to formally and deterministically assess the robustness (to model changes) of CFXs for neural networks. We introduce an abstraction framework based on interval neural networks to verify the Δ-robustness of CFXs against a possibly infinite set of changes to the model parameters, i.e., weights and biases. We then demonstrate the utility of this approach in two distinct ways. First, we analyse the Δ-robustness of a number of CFX generation methods from the literature and show that they unanimously host significant deficiencies in this regard. Second, we demonstrate how embedding Δ-robustness within existing methods can provide CFXs which are provably robust.

Antonio Rago, Hengzhi Li, Francesca Toni

As the field of explainable AI (XAI) is maturing, calls for interactive explanations for (the outputs of) AI models are growing, but the state-of-the-art predominantly focuses on static explanations. In this paper, we focus instead on interactive explanations framed as conflict resolution between agents (i.e. AI models and/or humans) by leveraging on computational argumentation. Specifically, we define Argumentative eXchanges (AXs) for dynamically sharing, in multi-agent systems, information harboured in individual agents' quantitative bipolar argumentation frameworks towards resolving conflicts amongst the agents. We then deploy AXs in the XAI setting in which a machine and a human interact about the machine's predictions. We identify and assess several theoretical properties characterising AXs that are suitable for XAI. Finally, we instantiate AXs for XAI by defining various agent behaviours, e.g. capturing counterfactual patterns of reasoning in machines and highlighting the effects of cognitive biases in humans. We show experimentally (in a simulated environment) the comparative advantages of these behaviours in terms of conflict resolution, and show that the strongest argument may not always be the most effective.

Junqi Jiang, Jianglin Lan, Francesco Leofante et al.

Counterfactual Explanations (CEs) have received increasing interest as a major methodology for explaining neural network classifiers. Usually, CEs for an input-output pair are defined as data points with minimum distance to the input that are classified with a different label than the output. To tackle the established problem that CEs are easily invalidated when model parameters are updated (e.g. retrained), studies have proposed ways to certify the robustness of CEs under model parameter changes bounded by a norm ball. However, existing methods targeting this form of robustness are not sound or complete, and they may generate implausible CEs, i.e., outliers wrt the training dataset. In fact, no existing method simultaneously optimises for closeness and plausibility while preserving robustness guarantees. In this work, we propose Provably RObust and PLAusible Counterfactual Explanations (PROPLACE), a method leveraging on robust optimisation techniques to address the aforementioned limitations in the literature. We formulate an iterative algorithm to compute provably robust CEs and prove its convergence, soundness and completeness. Through a comparative experiment involving six baselines, five of which target robustness, we show that PROPLACE achieves state-of-the-art performances against metrics on three evaluation aspects.

Benjamin Irwin, Antonio Rago, Francesca Toni

We introduce Forecasting Argumentation Frameworks (FAFs), a novel argumentation-based methodology for forecasting informed by recent judgmental forecasting research. FAFs comprise update frameworks which empower (human or artificial) agents to argue over time about the probability of outcomes, e.g. the winner of a political election or a fluctuation in inflation rates, whilst flagging perceived irrationality in the agents' behaviour with a view to improving their forecasting accuracy. FAFs include five argument types, amounting to standard pro/con arguments, as in bipolar argumentation, as well as novel proposal arguments and increase/decrease amendment arguments. We adapt an existing gradual semantics for bipolar argumentation to determine the aggregated dialectical strength of proposal arguments and define irrational behaviour. We then give a simple aggregation function which produces a final group forecast from rational agents' individual forecasts. We identify and study properties of FAFs and conduct an empirical evaluation which signals FAFs' potential to increase the forecasting accuracy of participants.

Antonio Rago, Pietro Baroni, Francesca Toni

Causal models are playing an increasingly important role in machine learning, particularly in the realm of explainable AI. We introduce a conceptualisation for generating argumentation frameworks (AFs) from causal models for the purpose of forging explanations for the models' outputs. The conceptualisation is based on reinterpreting desirable properties of semantics of AFs as explanation moulds, which are means for characterising the relations in the causal model argumentatively. We demonstrate our methodology by reinterpreting the property of bi-variate reinforcement as an explanation mould to forge bipolar AFs as explanations for the outputs of causal models. We perform a theoretical evaluation of these argumentative explanations, examining whether they satisfy a range of desirable explanatory and argumentative properties.

Antonio Rago, Bence Palfi, Purin Sukpanichnant et al.

AI-driven tools for healthcare are widely acknowledged as potentially beneficial to health practitioners and patients, e.g. the QCancer regression tool for cancer risk prediction. However, for these tools to be trusted, they need to be supplemented with explanations. We examine how explanations' content and format affect user comprehension and trust when explaining QCancer's predictions. Regarding content, we deploy the SHAP and Occlusion-1 explanation methods. Regarding format, we present SHAP explanations, conventionally, as charts (SC) and Occlusion-1 explanations as charts (OC) as well as text (OT), to which their simpler nature lends itself. We conduct experiments with two sets of stakeholders: the general public (representing patients) and medical students (representing healthcare practitioners). Our experiments showed higher subjective comprehension and trust for Occlusion-1 over SHAP explanations based on content. However, when controlling for format, only OT outperformed SC, suggesting this trend is driven by preferences for text. Other findings corroborated that explanation format, rather than content, is often the critical factor.

Avinash Kori, Antonio Rago, Francesca Toni

Deep learning models are powerful image classifiers but their opacity hinders their trustworthiness. Explanation methods for capturing the reasoning process within these classifiers faithfully and in a clear manner are scarce, due to their sheer complexity and size. We provide a solution for this problem by defining a novel method for explaining the outputs of image classifiers with debates between two agents, each arguing for a particular class. We obtain these debates as concrete instances of Free Argumentative eXchanges (FAXs), a novel argumentation-based multi-agent framework allowing agents to internalise opinions by other agents differently than originally stated. We define two metrics (consensus and persuasion rate) to assess the usefulness of FAXs as argumentative explanations for image classifiers. We then conduct a number of empirical experiments showing that FAXs perform well along these metrics as well as being more faithful to the image classifiers than conventional, non-argumentative explanation methods. All our implementations can be found at https://github.com/koriavinash1/FAX.

Junqi Jiang, Francesco Leofante, Antonio Rago et al.

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) are advocated as being ideally suited to providing algorithmic recourse for subjects affected by the predictions of machine learning models. While CEs can be beneficial to affected individuals, recent work has exposed severe issues related to the robustness of state-of-the-art methods for obtaining CEs. Since a lack of robustness may compromise the validity of CEs, techniques to mitigate this risk are in order. In this survey, we review works in the rapidly growing area of robust CEs and perform an in-depth analysis of the forms of robustness they consider. We also discuss existing solutions and their limitations, providing a solid foundation for future developments.

Junqi Jiang, Antonio Rago, Francesco Leofante et al.

Model Multiplicity (MM) arises when multiple, equally performing machine learning models can be trained to solve the same prediction task. Recent studies show that models obtained under MM may produce inconsistent predictions for the same input. When this occurs, it becomes challenging to provide counterfactual explanations (CEs), a common means for offering recourse recommendations to individuals negatively affected by models' predictions. In this paper, we formalise this problem, which we name recourse-aware ensembling, and identify several desirable properties which methods for solving it should satisfy. We show that existing ensembling methods, naturally extended in different ways to provide CEs, fail to satisfy these properties. We then introduce argumentative ensembling, deploying computational argumentation to guarantee robustness of CEs to MM, while also accommodating customisable user preferences. We show theoretically and experimentally that argumentative ensembling satisfies properties which the existing methods lack, and that the trade-offs are minimal wrt accuracy.

Xiang Yin, Nico Potyka, Antonio Rago et al.

Contestable AI requires that AI-driven decisions align with human preferences. While various forms of argumentation have been shown to support contestability, Edge-Weighted Quantitative Bipolar Argumentation Frameworks (EW-QBAFs) have received little attention. In this work, we show how EW-QBAFs can be deployed for this purpose. Specifically, we introduce the contestability problem for EW-QBAFs, which asks how to modify edge weights (e.g., preferences) to achieve a desired strength for a specific argument of interest (i.e., a topic argument). To address this problem, we propose gradient-based relation attribution explanations (G-RAEs), which quantify the sensitivity of the topic argument's strength to changes in individual edge weights, thus providing interpretable guidance for weight adjustments towards contestability. Building on G-RAEs, we develop an iterative algorithm that progressively adjusts the edge weights to attain the desired strength. We evaluate our approach experimentally on synthetic EW-QBAFs that simulate the structural characteristics of personalised recommender systems and multi-layer perceptrons, and demonstrate that it can solve the problem effectively.

Antonio Rago, Stylianos Loukas Vasileiou, Francesca Toni et al.

Gradual semantics (GS) have demonstrated great potential in argumentation, in particular for deploying quantitative bipolar argumentation frameworks (QBAFs) in a number of real-world settings, from judgmental forecasting to explainable AI. In this paper, we provide a novel methodology for obtaining GS for statement graphs, a form of structured argumentation framework, where arguments and relations between them are built from logical statements. Our methodology differs from existing approaches in the literature in two main ways. First, it naturally accommodates incomplete information, so that arguments with partially specified premises can play a meaningful role in the evaluation. Second, it is modularly defined to leverage on any GS for QBAFs. We also define a set of novel properties for our GS and study their suitability alongside a set of existing properties (adapted to our setting) for two instantiations of our GS, demonstrating their advantages over existing approaches.

Junqi Jiang, Francesco Leofante, Antonio Rago et al.

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) provide recourse recommendations for individuals affected by algorithmic decisions. A key challenge is generating CEs that are robust against various perturbation types (e.g. input and model perturbations) while simultaneously satisfying other desirable properties. These include plausibility, ensuring CEs reside on the data manifold, and diversity, providing multiple distinct recourse options for single inputs. Existing methods, however, mostly struggle to address these multifaceted requirements in a unified, model-agnostic manner. We address these limitations by proposing a novel generative framework. First, we introduce the Label-conditional Gaussian Mixture Variational Autoencoder (L-GMVAE), a model trained to learn a structured latent space where each class label is represented by a set of Gaussian components with diverse, prototypical centroids. Building on this, we present LAPACE (LAtent PAth Counterfactual Explanations), a model-agnostic algorithm that synthesises entire paths of CE points by interpolating from inputs' latent representations to those learned latent centroids. This approach inherently ensures robustness to input changes, as all paths for a given target class converge to the same fixed centroids. Furthermore, the generated paths provide a spectrum of recourse options, allowing users to navigate the trade-off between proximity and plausibility while also encouraging robustness against model changes. In addition, user-specified actionability constraints can also be easily incorporated via lightweight gradient optimisation through the L-GMVAE's decoder. Comprehensive experiments show that LAPACE is computationally efficient and achieves competitive performance across eight quantitative metrics.

Junqi Jiang, Antonio Rago, Francesco Leofante et al.

In machine learning, it is common to obtain multiple equally performing models for the same prediction task, e.g., when training neural networks with different random seeds. Model multiplicity (MM) is the situation which arises when these competing models differ in their predictions for the same input, for which ensembling is often employed to determine an aggregation of the outputs. Providing recourse recommendations via counterfactual explanations (CEs) under MM thus becomes complex, since the CE may not be valid across all models, i.e., the CEs are not robust under MM. In this work, we formalise the problem of providing recourse under MM, which we name recourse-aware ensembling (RAE). We propose the idea that under MM, CEs for each individual model should be considered alongside their predictions so that the aggregated prediction and recourse are decided in tandem. Centred around this intuition, we introduce six desirable properties for solutions to this problem. For solving RAE, we propose a novel argumentative ensembling method which guarantees the robustness of CEs under MM. Specifically, our method leverages computational argumentation to explicitly represent the conflicts between models and counterfactuals regarding prediction results and CE validity. It then uses argumentation semantics to resolve the conflicts and obtain the final solution, in a manner which is parametric to the chosen semantics. Our method also allows for the specification of preferences over the models under MM, allowing further customisation of the ensemble. In a comprehensive theoretical analysis, we characterise the behaviour of argumentative ensembling with four different argumentation semantics. We then empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in satisfying desirable properties with eight instantiations of our method. (Abstract is shortened for arXiv.)

Xuehao Zhai, Junqi Jiang, Adam Dejl et al.

Urban land use inference is a critically important task that aids in city planning and policy-making. Recently, the increased use of sensor and location technologies has facilitated the collection of multi-modal mobility data, offering valuable insights into daily activity patterns. Many studies have adopted advanced data-driven techniques to explore the potential of these multi-modal mobility data in land use inference. However, existing studies often process samples independently, ignoring the spatial correlations among neighbouring objects and heterogeneity among different services. Furthermore, the inherently low interpretability of complex deep learning methods poses a significant barrier in urban planning, where transparency and extrapolability are crucial for making long-term policy decisions. To overcome these challenges, we introduce an explainable framework for inferring land use that synergises heterogeneous graph neural networks (HGNs) with Explainable AI techniques, enhancing both accuracy and explainability. The empirical experiments demonstrate that the proposed HGNs significantly outperform baseline graph neural networks for all six land-use indicators, especially in terms of 'office' and 'sustenance'. As explanations, we consider feature attribution and counterfactual explanations. The analysis of feature attribution explanations shows that the symmetrical nature of the `residence' and 'work' categories predicted by the framework aligns well with the commuter's 'work' and 'recreation' activities in London. The analysis of the counterfactual explanations reveals that variations in node features and types are primarily responsible for the differences observed between the predicted land use distribution and the ideal mixed state. These analyses demonstrate that the proposed HGNs can suitably support urban stakeholders in their urban planning and policy-making.