Joyce H. Keyak

Xuewei Cao, Joyce H Keyak, Sigurdur Sigurdsson et al.

Hip fracture risk assessment is an important but challenging task. Quantitative CT-based patient specific finite element analysis (FEA) computes the force (fracture load) to break the proximal femur in a particular loading condition. It provides different structural information about the proximal femur that can influence a subject overall fracture risk. To obtain a more robust measure of fracture risk, we used principal component analysis (PCA) to develop a global FEA computed fracture risk index that incorporates the FEA-computed yield and ultimate failure loads and energies to failure in four loading conditions (single-limb stance and impact from a fall onto the posterior, posterolateral, and lateral aspects of the greater trochanter) of 110 hip fracture subjects and 235 age and sex matched control subjects from the AGES-Reykjavik study. We found that the first PC (PC1) of the FE parameters was the only significant predictor of hip fracture. Using a logistic regression model, we determined if prediction performance for hip fracture using PC1 differed from that using FE parameters combined by stratified random resampling with respect to hip fracture status. The results showed that the average of the area under the receive operating characteristic curve (AUC) using PC1 was always higher than that using all FE parameters combined in the male subjects. The AUC of PC1 and AUC of the FE parameters combined were not significantly different than that in the female subjects or in all subjects

Kristoffer Larsen, Chen Zhao, Joyce Keyak et al.

Aims. The purpose of this study is to create a multi-stage machine learning model to predict cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) response for heart failure (HF) patients. This model exploits uncertainty quantification to recommend additional collection of single-photon emission computed tomography myocardial perfusion imaging (SPECT MPI) variables if baseline clinical variables and features from electrocardiogram (ECG) are not sufficient. Methods. 218 patients who underwent rest-gated SPECT MPI were enrolled in this study. CRT response was defined as an increase in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) > 5% at a 6+-1 month follow-up. A multi-stage ML model was created by combining two ensemble models: Ensemble 1 was trained with clinical variables and ECG; Ensemble 2 included Ensemble 1 plus SPECT MPI features. Uncertainty quantification from Ensemble 1 allowed for multi-stage decision-making to determine if the acquisition of SPECT data for a patient is necessary. The performance of the multi-stage model was compared with that of Ensemble models 1 and 2. Results. The response rate for CRT was 55.5% (n = 121) with overall male gender 61.0% (n = 133), an average age of 62.0+-11.8, and LVEF of 27.7+-11.0. The multi-stage model performed similarly to Ensemble 2 (which utilized the additional SPECT data) with AUC of 0.75 vs. 0.77, accuracy of 0.71 vs. 0.69, sensitivity of 0.70 vs. 0.72, and specificity 0.72 vs. 0.65, respectively. However, the multi-stage model only required SPECT MPI data for 52.7% of the patients across all folds. Conclusions. By using rule-based logic stemming from uncertainty quantification, the multi-stage model was able to reduce the need for additional SPECT MPI data acquisition without sacrificing performance.

Chen Zhao, Joyce H Keyak, Xuewei Cao et al.

The aim of this paper is to design a deep learning-based model to predict proximal femoral strength using multi-view information fusion. Method: We developed new models using multi-view variational autoencoder (MVAE) for feature representation learning and a product of expert (PoE) model for multi-view information fusion. We applied the proposed models to an in-house Louisiana Osteoporosis Study (LOS) cohort with 931 male subjects, including 345 African Americans and 586 Caucasians. With an analytical solution of the product of Gaussian distribution, we adopted variational inference to train the designed MVAE-PoE model to perform common latent feature extraction. We performed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to select 256 genetic variants with the lowest p-values for each proximal femoral strength and integrated whole genome sequence (WGS) features and DXA-derived imaging features to predict proximal femoral strength. Results: The best prediction model for fall fracture load was acquired by integrating WGS features and DXA-derived imaging features. The designed models achieved the mean absolute percentage error of 18.04%, 6.84% and 7.95% for predicting proximal femoral fracture loads using linear models of fall loading, nonlinear models of fall loading, and nonlinear models of stance loading, respectively. Compared to existing multi-view information fusion methods, the proposed MVAE-PoE achieved the best performance. Conclusion: The proposed models are capable of predicting proximal femoral strength using WGS features and DXA-derived imaging features. Though this tool is not a substitute for FEA using QCT images, it would make improved assessment of hip fracture risk more widely available while avoiding the increased radiation dosage and clinical costs from QCT.

Zixin Shi, Chen Zhao, Meiling Zhou et al.

Purpose: To compare dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-derived hip skeletal phenotypes in relation to hip fracture risk using prespecified confounder adjustment and to assess whether phenotypes ranked by their backdoor-adjusted average treatment effects (ATEs) improve risk stratification. Methods: We analyzed 21,098 UK Biobank participants with linked health records, hip DXA-derived skeletal measures, and prespecified covariates. Sixteen phenotypes spanning bone mineral content (BMC), bone mineral density (BMD), and T-score across hip-related regions were evaluated. Confounder selection was guided by a prespecified directed acyclic graph (DAG). Backdoor-adjusted ATEs were estimated on the absolute risk-difference scale per standard deviation (SD) increase. Effect heterogeneity was evaluated for total femur BMD, and downstream prediction was assessed using clinical variables combined with phenotypes ranked by ATE magnitude. Results: Among 21,098 participants, 115 had hip fractures. All 16 phenotypes showed negative backdoor-adjusted ATEs per SD increase. The largest ATEs were observed for total femur BMC and total femur BMD, each with a risk difference of -0.0047, corresponding to approximately 4.7 fewer hip fractures per 1,000 participants per SD higher phenotype value. Conditional effects of total femur BMD were stronger among older participants and those with lower BMI. In prediction, clinical variables plus the top 11 ATE-ranked phenotypes achieved higher AUC than FRAX with femoral neck BMD (0.842 vs. 0.709), with higher sensitivity (0.748 vs. 0.443) and similar specificity (0.793 vs. 0.777). Conclusion: DXA-derived hip skeletal phenotypes differed in their backdoor-adjusted ATEs. Phenotype-level causal evaluation may help identify informative DXA measures for risk stratification.

Rochak Dhakal, Chen Zhao, Zixin Shi et al.

Quantitative computed tomography (QCT) plays a crucial role in assessing bone strength and fracture risk by enabling volumetric analysis of bone density distribution in the proximal femur. However, deploying automated segmentation models in practice remains difficult because deep networks trained on one dataset often fail when applied to another. This failure stems from domain shift, where scanners, reconstruction settings, and patient demographics vary across institutions, leading to unstable predictions and unreliable quantitative metrics. Overcoming this barrier is essential for multi-center osteoporosis research and for ensuring that radiomics and structural finite element analysis results remain reproducible across sites. In this work, we developed a domain-adaptive transformer segmentation framework tailored for multi-institutional QCT. Our model is trained and validated on one of the largest hip fracture related research cohorts to date, comprising 1,024 QCT images scans from Tulane University and 384 scans from Rochester, Minnesota for proximal femur segmentation. To address domain shift, we integrate two complementary strategies within a 3D TransUNet backbone: adversarial alignment via Gradient Reversal Layer (GRL), which discourages the network from encoding site-specific cues, and statistical alignment via Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), which explicitly reduces distributional mismatches between institutions. This dual mechanism balances invariance and fine-grained alignment, enabling scanner-agnostic feature learning while preserving anatomical detail.

Chen Zhao, Anjum Shaik, Joyce H. Keyak et al.

Hip fractures represent a major health concern, particularly among the elderly, often leading decreased mobility and increased mortality. Early and accurate detection of at risk individuals is crucial for effective intervention. In this study, we propose Iterative Cross Graph Matching for Hip Fracture Risk Assessment (ICGM-FRAX), a novel approach for predicting hip fractures using Dual-energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DXA) images. ICGM-FRAX involves iteratively comparing a test (subject) graph with multiple template graphs representing the characteristics of hip fracture subjects to assess the similarity and accurately to predict hip fracture risk. These graphs are obtained as follows. The DXA images are separated into multiple regions of interest (RoIs), such as the femoral head, shaft, and lesser trochanter. Radiomic features are then calculated for each RoI, with the central coordinates used as nodes in a graph. The connectivity between nodes is established according to the Euclidean distance between these coordinates. This process transforms each DXA image into a graph, where each node represents a RoI, and edges derived by the centroids of RoIs capture the spatial relationships between them. If the test graph closely matches a set of template graphs representing subjects with incident hip fractures, it is classified as indicating high hip fracture risk. We evaluated our method using 547 subjects from the UK Biobank dataset, and experimental results show that ICGM-FRAX achieved a sensitivity of 0.9869, demonstrating high accuracy in predicting hip fractures.

Shuo Sun, Meiling Zhou, Chen Zhao et al.

Clinical risk prediction models often fail to be generalized across cohorts because underlying data distributions differ by clinical site, region, demographics, and measurement protocols. This limitation is particularly pronounced in hip fracture risk prediction, where the performance of models trained on one cohort (the source cohort) can degrade substantially when deployed in other cohorts (target cohorts). We used a shared set of clinical and DXA-derived features across three large cohorts - the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF), the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study (MrOS), and the UK Biobank (UKB), to systematically evaluate the performance of three domain adaptation methods - Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), Correlation Alignment (CORAL), and Domain - Adversarial Neural Networks (DANN) and their combinations. For a source cohort with males only and a source cohort with females only, domain-adaptation methods consistently showed improved performance than the no-adaptation baseline (source-only training), and the use of combinations of multiple domain adaptation methods delivered the largest and most stable gains. The method that combines MMD, CORAL, and DANN achieved the highest discrimination with the area under curve (AUC) of 0.88 for a source cohort with males only and 0.95 for a source cohort with females only), demonstrating that integrating multiple domain adaptation methods could produce feature representations that are less sensitive to dataset differences. Unlike existing methods that rely heavily on supervised tuning or assume known outcomes of samples in target cohorts, our outcome-free approaches enable the model selection under realistic deployment conditions and improve generalization of models in hip fracture risk prediction.

Shuo Sun, Meiling Zhou, Chen Zhao et al.

Hip fractures are a major cause of disability, mortality, and healthcare burden in older adults, underscoring the need for early risk assessment. However, commonly used tools such as the DXA T-score and FRAX often lack sensitivity and miss individuals at high risk, particularly those without prior fractures or with osteopenia. To address this limitation, we propose a sequential two-stage model that integrates clinical and imaging information to improve prediction accuracy. Using data from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study (MrOS), the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF), and the UK Biobank, Stage 1 (Screening) employs clinical, demographic, and functional variables to estimate baseline risk, while Stage 2 (Imaging) incorporates DXA-derived features for refinement. The model was rigorously validated through internal and external testing, showing consistent performance and adaptability across cohorts. Compared to T-score and FRAX, the two-stage framework achieved higher sensitivity and reduced missed cases, offering a cost-effective and personalized approach for early hip fracture risk assessment. Keywords: Hip Fracture, Two-Stage Model, Risk Prediction, Sensitivity, DXA, FRAX

Chen Zhao, Joyce H. Keyak, Jinshan Tang et al.

Purpose: Proximal femur image analyses based on quantitative computed tomography (QCT) provide a method to quantify the bone density and evaluate osteoporosis and risk of fracture. We aim to develop a deep-learning-based method for automatic proximal femur segmentation. Methods and Materials: We developed a 3D image segmentation method based on V-Net, an end-to-end fully convolutional neural network (CNN), to extract the proximal femur QCT images automatically. The proposed V-net methodology adopts a compound loss function, which includes a Dice loss and a L2 regularizer. We performed experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed segmentation method. In the experiments, a QCT dataset which included 397 QCT subjects was used. For the QCT image of each subject, the ground truth for the proximal femur was delineated by a well-trained scientist. During the experiments for the entire cohort then for male and female subjects separately, 90% of the subjects were used in 10-fold cross-validation for training and internal validation, and to select the optimal parameters of the proposed models; the rest of the subjects were used to evaluate the performance of models. Results: Visual comparison demonstrated high agreement between the model prediction and ground truth contours of the proximal femur portion of the QCT images. In the entire cohort, the proposed model achieved a Dice score of 0.9815, a sensitivity of 0.9852 and a specificity of 0.9992. In addition, an R2 score of 0.9956 (p<0.001) was obtained when comparing the volumes measured by our model prediction with the ground truth. Conclusion: This method shows a great promise for clinical application to QCT and QCT-based finite element analysis of the proximal femur for evaluating osteoporosis and hip fracture risk.